BP Daily: After failures, we have lift off!

Sometimes it just takes time for prospects to take flight

Originally Published: May 21, 2009
By Steven Goldman | Baseball Prospectus

While many prospects, especially hitters, can be accurately projected via their draft position and minor league performances, sometimes the dreaded human element rears its ugly head and makes a near science frustratingly inexact.

Outfielder Brad Komminsk, the fourth overall pick in the 1979 amateur draft, hit .322 with 33 home runs as a 20-year-old in Class A. Two years later, he hit .334 and slugged .596 at Triple-A. Even a modest projection for Komminsk would have been hard-pressed not to rate him at the very least a future All-Star. Instead, he hit .218/.301/.336 in 376 very disappointing major league games.