Commentary

BP Daily: NL reality check

Some hot starts are real, others a statistical anomaly. We examine which is which

Originally Published: May 7, 2009
By Jay Jaffe | Baseball Prospectus
Getty ImagesEven if Manny were around for the next 50 games, the Dodgers wouldn't likely remain as dominant as they have been.

Yesterday, I took a stab at gauging the significance of the results from the American League's first month of play using two tools to estimate final winning percentages. One is our PECOTA-based Playoff Odds Report, the other a historically based formula derived by Rany Jazayerli, which incorporates a team's record to date as well as its results from the previous three years. As I said, Rany's study suggests that not until the 48th game do a current season's results become more predictive of the final outcome than the historical projections. In other words, it's too early to draw hard conclusions, but we can certainly glean hints from what's transpired so far.