Originally Published: April 28, 2009

BP Daily: Slow starters = top targets

Snatch up these sluggish stars and savor the tears of the unbelievers

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By Marc Normandin
Baseball Prospectus
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April is a wonderful month to be a patient fantasy owner, because there is always someone in your league who can't handle slow starts and gives up on early-season sluggards a few weeks too soon. It's the perfect time for some buy-low shenanigans.

Dioner Navarro finally broke out last year, hitting .295/.347/.407, in part thanks to a hot start. That was unusual for Navarro though; he was a miserable hitter during the first half of 2007 and in April 2006. This year he's up to his old tricks, as he's put together a line of just .183/.197/.283 over 60 at-bats. He's swinging at more pitches outside of the zone, but overall he's more patient, with 4.0 pitches per plate appearance thus far (his highest mark since he reached 3.9 with Tampa Bay back in 2006). The pitches he is making contact with aren't doing much of anything -- he's hitting fly balls half of the time he puts a ball in play, but nearly one-third of those have been infield popups. Pitchers may have adjusted to him a bit as well, throwing him fewer changeups and far more curveballs this year. A look at Inside Edge shows Navarro is hitting .321 on changeups from right-handers (Navarro is a switch-hitter) and just .189 on curveballs. Things are even worse against lefties (.111/.111/.278 overall).

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