Commentary

BP Daily: Sending out an S.O.S.

In small stretches, schedule strength could make a big difference

Originally Published: April 15, 2009
By Jay Jaffe | Baseball Prospectus

Through weeks of tweaking and touting our PECOTA-based projected standings, one fact has remained clear: The AL East is the majors' most stacked division, with three teams forecasted to win at least 94 games and the eventual runner-up likely to win the league's Wild Card. The NL East features three strong contenders as well, with the second-place club likely to be in the thick of the wild-card hunt. Given that these contenders' interleague slates vary -- the New York Mets play the New York Yankees six times due to their "natural rivalry," and likewise for the Atlanta Braves and Boston Red Sox, but the Philadelphia Phillies draw the considerably weaker Toronto Blue Jays and the Tampa Bay Rays face the Florida Marlins -- it's worth gauging the impact of the differing schedules.