Commentary

BP Daily: Projected NL standings

Mets, Cubs and Dodgers are picks to win division titles

Originally Published: April 2, 2009
By Jay Jaffe | Baseball Prospectus

One real pleasure that we get in working with the PECOTA projection system comes when we move beyond the individual player forecasts to the team level. Every year, once we release the first batch of projections, our staff compiles depth charts and calibrates the playing time at each position for each team. Our system adjusts for strength of schedule, team defense and reliever leverage -- and we update these on a daily basis throughout the exhibition season based upon camp reports, expert injury analysis, our own intuition and input from readers who keep a close eye on their hometown nine.

The result is our Projected Standings and it's often where we generate the most controversy. Two years ago, we drew fire for forecasting just 72 wins for the White Sox, who wound up winning exactly that many. Last year, we raised eyebrows with our assertion that the Rays would finish well above .500 for the first time in history. While we don't always hit the bull's-eye so directly, the standings are an area where we stand tall.