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While trying to figure out who's going to win the Cy Young Award in the National League, I consulted Bill James' Cy Young Predictor, but unfortunately, it doesn't seem to work well for relief pitchers.

It once did -- or would have, if Bill had invented it earlier than he did -- and it might again someday. But right now, it doesn't. I'm not sure whether it's because ace relievers have changed or because the voters' minds have changed. In 2004, Mariano Rivera and Jason Isringhausen finished second in their leagues in the Cy Young Predictor; in our world, they finished third (Rivera) and not at all (Isringhausen). In 2005, Rivera and Joe Nathan finished first and third in the American League Cy Predictor; in our world, they finished second (Rivera) and not at all (Nathan).

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