How Mets can make playoffs
When it comes to planning the offseason, uncertainty is New York's friend
- Mike Stobe/Getty ImagesFor the first time in a while, David Wright is the only big-money player the Mets have.With the mega-contracts to Johan Santana and Jason Bay finally off of the books, and David Wright and Jonathon Niese now the New York Mets' only players signed to long-term contracts, the club can spend close to $50 million toward 2014's payroll without exceeding last year's relatively frugal $93 million payroll.
Remember, this is a team that had a payroll of $142 million as recently as 2011. In other words, the Mets have room to spend even if you factor in the owner's financial woes, and, perhaps more surprisingly, a realistic chance of making the playoffs if they do.
The myth of certainty
According to 2014 Steamer projections, the Mets can expect to win 75 games if they stand pat. Depending on how you perform the calculations, baseball teams appear to be spending anywhere from $6 million to $7 million per win on the open market.
Therefore, if the Mets spend $50 to $60 million on free agents they might reasonably expect to improve by eight wins. The problem, of course, is that if a 75-win team improves by eight games, it's still only an 83-win team and 83 wins won't get the Mets into the playoffs.
While this argument seems quite reasonable, it wildly overestimates how much we actually know about the future quality of any team and underestimates the fickle nature of the game.
To see the Mets' path to the postseason, become an Insider today.
We see that you are not an ESPN Insider. Upgrade today and gain access to our exclusive coverage.
MORE MLB HEADLINES
- Cards 3B Carpenter signs $52 million deal
- Royals name Shields as Opening Day starter
- Cardinals' Garcia to see Dr. Andrews again
- No extra replay in place for Australia games
MOST SENT STORIES ON ESPN.COM
MLB ON ESPN.COM
Shortstop Hanley Ramirez has become an indispensable cog in the Dodgers' lineup.
- Majestic Men's Replica New York Mets Matt Harvey #33 Home Ivory Jersey
- MLB Home
- AL East
- Baltimore Orioles
- Boston Red Sox
- New York Yankees
- Tampa Bay Rays
- Toronto Blue Jays
- AL Central
- Chicago White Sox
- Cleveland Indians
- Detroit Tigers
- Kansas City Royals
- Minnesota Twins
- AL West
- Houston Astros
- Los Angeles Angels
- Oakland Athletics
- Seattle Mariners
- Texas Rangers
- Fantasy: Sign up!
- Spring blog