Reds must ante up in NL Central

After finishing 79-83, 17 games behind the first-place Milwaukee Brewers, the Reds had an important decision to make: Push for the division in 2012 or rebuild and try to make the team stronger in the middle-term rather than focusing entirely on the upcoming season. A team finishing around .500 can create a lot of tough decisions for management, as simply staying put and hoping for the best is generally a pretty lousy proposition. For much of the offseason, that's pretty much what it looked like the Reds had decided to do.

A week before Christmas, that changed. General manager Walt Jocketty pulled off a surprising trade, acquiring young hurler Mat Latos from the San Diego Padres for the erratic Edinson Volquez and a rich package of prospects -- first baseman Yonder Alonso, catcher Yasmani Grandal and reliever Brad Boxberger.

The Reds gave up a lot of value to bring in Latos, but it's hard to get a very good young pitcher without giving up a king's ransom. Latos just turned 24 and is four years away from free agency. The ZiPS projection system pegs Latos at 15-9 with a 3.38 ERA for Cincinnati and a 90 percent chance at being above league average in 2012. Going forth until free agency, ZiPS has Latos at 60-34 with a 3.25 ERA during the next four seasons, making Latos a near-ace who can be a crucial component of any team's long-term core.

However, the loss of the prospects does mean that the Reds are now going down a particular path and need to go, to borrow a poker term, "all-in" on the next couple of seasons.

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