Commentary

Pablo Sandoval will rise again

Justin Upton, Chris Iannetta and Matt Kemp are other NL West'ers due for an uptick

Originally Published: February 10, 2011
By Jay Jaffe | Baseball Prospectus
Getty ImagesPablo Sandoval is due for an improved 2011 campaign after last year's playoff fizzle.

What follows is a look at the underwhelming campaigns put together by five key NL West hitters in 2010, and what the first release of our PECOTA projections says about their chances of bouncing back.

For the uninitiated: PECOTA is based on a huge set of data consisting of tens of thousands of historical player-seasons dating back to World War II, incorporating not only major league statistics but also minor league ones, along with age, position, player height and weight, and other variables. In their full form, BP presents the projections across a range of possibilities -- best and worst-case scenarios, select increments between those, and weighted mean projections -- but at this point, all that's been released are the latter. Those numbers, which include a heavy dose of regression to the mean, will undergo minor tweaks over the next several weeks via various refinements of the system, adjustments for playing time, changes of team, multi-season projections and a whole lot more.


For the full breakdown of Matt Kemp, Pablo Sandoval and Justin Upton, you need to be an Insider.