Hidden value for MLB free agents
Adam Dunn, Victor Martinez and others are overvalued due to poor defense
Carlos Pena and Adam Dunn don't seem that different. Both bat left-handed, play first base and filed for free agency. Both are what you might call "three true outcome" players: They strike out in bunches and have low batting averages, but they compensate with extreme patience and power.
Pena, 32, is coming off a poor offensive season, failing to hit above .200 (bringing his on-base percentage down to .325) and seeing his home run total drop from a league-leading 39 in 2009 to 28 in 2010. Meanwhile, Dunn -- who turned 31 this week -- has been a model of consistency, except for a disturbing 30 percent drop in walk rate this past season.
To read more about whether Carlos Pena or Adam Dunn is a more valuable free agent and which FAs are overvalued and undervalued on account of their defense, you must be an ESPN Insider.
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Offseason Buyer's Guide
Buyer's GuideNov. 7: Keith Law's top 50 free agent rankings
Nov. 8: Buyers Guide: Starting Pitchers
• Projecting the Starters
Nov. 9: Buyers Guide: Relief Pitchers
• Projecting the Relievers
Nov. 10: Buyers Guide: Catchers
• Projecting the Catchers
Nov. 11: Buyers Guide: First basemen/DH
• Projecting the first basemen
Nov. 12: Buyers Guide: Middle infielders
• Projecting middle infielders
Nov. 15: Buyers Guide: Third basemen
• Projecting the third basemen
Nov. 16: Buyers Guide: Outfielders
• Projecting the outfielders
FeaturesNov. 5: BP: Five biggest holes
Nov. 5: Olney: Quieting the rumor mill
Nov. 5: BIS: The next defensive makeover
Nov. 6: BP: Five top moves
Nov. 10: Olney: Top teams chasing Carl Crawford
Nov. 11: Keating: Teams that shouldn't make a move
Nov. 13: BIS: Finding hidden value free agents
Nov. 15: BP: Shopping in the $0.99 bin
History• Law: 2009 top 50 rankings
• Law: 2008 top 50 rankings
• Law: 2007 top 50 rankings
• Law: 2006 top 40 rankings