First-round draft analysis

Updated: June 7, 2007, 10:03 PM ET
ESPN.com

Following is Keith Law's analysis of each of the first-round picks in the 2007 First-Year Player Draft.

Round 1
PICK TEAM NAME POS SCHOOL
1 Tampa Bay Devil Rays David Price LHP Vanderbilt
  Everyone expected Price to go No. 1. He was the No. 2 player on my list, the No. 1 pitcher, and the Devil Rays have a need for pitching depth in their organization. Price was seen as more signable than the Boras clients. He's so polished and has tremendous stuff -- a plus fastball, with plus control and command. He has an excellent track record of success, and has pitched well for Team USA, which plays a great schedule. He can move very quickly through the minors.
2 Kansas City Royals Mike Moustakas SS Chatsworth (Calif.) HS
  Earlier in the year his teammate, Matt Dominguez, was seen as more of a top 10 selection. But Moustakas has played so well. In Las Vegas in early April, he went off at the plate. And he can throw 93-97 off the mound. He's a tremendous talent. The question is, what position will he play in pro ball? It could be third base. He should hit for average with line-drive power, and has a chance to hit 20-30 home runs a year.
3 Chicago Cubs Josh Vitters 3B Cypress (Calif.) HS
  The Cubs were hoping to get Vitters, and they got him. Vitters is a very advanced bat that will be above average both with average and power at the pro level. He has tremendous bat speed, and he will get much stronger as he matures. His arm/glove are playable at third base, but he might surprise in the future with more work and instruction.
4 Pittsburgh Pirates Daniel Moskos LHP Clemson
  Moskos is a strong-bodied major college closer with a clean arm and fairly sound power delivery. He has an outstanding fastball with plus movement that is effective in and out and up and down. His late-biting slider is a major league outpitch to righties and lefties. The Pirates could put him in the bullpen and move him through the system rather quickly.
5 Baltimore Orioles Matt Wieters C Georgia Tech
  The No. 1 player on my draft board. It's a surprise the Orioles drafted a Boras player. It'll be interesting to see how the negotiations go because there's talk that Boras will be looking for a Mark Teixeira type of contract. But Wieters is a once-in-a-decade kind of talent. He's an outstanding offensive and defensive catcher, and easily the best college bat in the draft.
6 Washington Nationals Ross Detwiler LHP Missouri State
  The Nationals get a lefty with an electric arm and a nice, loose, easy motion. Detwiler's explosive fastball should allow him to be a power starter in the future. He needs to gain better consistency with breaking pitches. But with an improved delivery, he could be become a No. 2 starter in the major leagues, although questions about his command could make him a No. 3.
7 Milwaukee Brewers Matt LaPorta 1B Florida
  The nice thing about taking LaPorta as a developed college guy is that he could suddenly have some trade value down the road. LaPorta is a well-developed college hitter with good strength. He makes consistently hard contact and gets good extension through the ball. He is for the most part a finished product who should get through the minor leagues very quickly, but may have limited upside. He should be an everyday first baseman early in his major league career, although Prince Fielder looks to be the Brewers' first baseman of both now and the future. He figures to be a Greg Colbrunn/Scott Hatteberg type player.
8 Colorado Rockies Casey Weathers RHP Vanderbilt
  Weathers is hands down the best college reliever in the draft. He could easily show up in the majors this year and have the fastest impact on a team of any draft pick. But he's more likely to be up and effective next year.
9 Arizona Diamondbacks Jarrod Parker RHP Norwell HS, Ossian, Ind.
  Parker is the best non-Boras prep arm in the draft. At around 6-foot-1, he's a polished high school right-hander with plus stuff and decent feel. His fastball has touched 98 on some guns. His slider is his primary secondary pitch, and it has a hard, late break. He came in as a legitimate top-five talent.
10 San Francisco Giants Madison Bumgarner LHP South Caldwell HS, Hudson, N.C.
  This is a tremendous pick for the Giants. They've had a pretty good run of developing young arms, with pitchers like Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum. With Bumgarner, he's more of a long-term project. But he has a great fastball and a really nice changeup. He needs to learn more consistency with the curveball. His stuff could make him a No. 2 starter. He's a power arm that needs some instruction for him to reach the big leagues.
11 Seattle Mariners Phillippe Aumont RHP Ecole secondaire du Versant, Gatineau, Quebec
  At 6-foot-6, Aumont is an imposing pitcher. At the same time, though, he is an excellent athlete who is still very crude as a pitcher, but he has the velocity and sink you don't see very often. I had him going as high as No. 5 to the Orioles, so this is outstanding value for the Mariners.
12 Florida Marlins Matt Dominguez 3B Chatsworth (Calif.) HS
  Dominguez is a high-profile high school player with plus tools on both offense and defense. He has a chance to be a huge run produce at the major league level and to win some Gold Gloves at third base.
13 Cleveland Indians Beau Mills 3B/1B Lewis-Clark State
  This is an outstanding pick for the Indians, who are probably surprised he dropped to them. He's a tremendous power hitter, but his position is a question, although he could work out as a DH. He's clearly not a third baseman. He's the first guy from a non-Division I school, and in fact, it's an NAIA school. But it's one that has produced a lot of talent, and Mills is the latest example.
14 Atlanta Braves Jason Heyward CF Henry County HS, McDonough, Ga.
  The Braves are excellent at scouring the state of Georgia and finding talent like Heyward. He compares favorably to Fred McGriff; they are very similar hitters, especially in terms of power. But Heyward is a better overall athlete. Although he plays center field now, Heyward could move to right.
15 Cincinnati Reds Devin Mesoraco C Punxsutawney (Pa.) HS
  Mesoraco is a raw but toolsy catcher, a strong kid with excellent power. As a catcher, he has a short, easy throwing motion with above-average arm strength. He's also a plus athlete with good agility. Mesoraco has outstanding potential.
16 Toronto Blue Jays Kevin Ahrens SS Memorial HS, Houston, Texas
  Ahrens' bat will take him as far as he can go. As a switch-hitter, he has a good approach at the plate. He's more powerful from the right side. He has a strong arm, but he projects more a third baseman.
17 Texas Rangers Blake Beavan RHP Irving HS, Irving, Texas
  Beavan is a very hard thrower with an unusual delivery; he has a stiff landing, and a lot of scouts aren't high on him because of that. But he gets good sink on his fastball, which he runs up into the mid-90s. It's not a surprise that he went to the Rangers, which has a need for power arms with good sink, especially in their ballpark.
18 St. Louis Cardinals Peter Kozma SS Owasso HS, Owasso, Okla.
  Kozma's best asset is his feel for the game. He compares to a young Michael Young. He has good baseball instincts, makes contact and has good strike-zone awareness. He has a solid-average arm, especially when moving in. He could be a good No.2 bat. He likes to run and make things happen.
19 Philadelphia Phillies Joe Savery LHP Rice
  Savery is coming off arm problems and has pitched limited innings. His fastball is sneaky fast. He'll make mistakes with his curveball, which is a potential out-pitch against lefties, but is inconsistent. He needs to develop more maturity.
20 Los Angeles Dodgers Chris Withrow RHP Midland Christian HS, Midland, Texas
  He's a strong right-hander with a very easy and explosive arm. His fastball shows life in the 88-92 mph range, and he has a powerful curveball with late bite. He has solid mechanics and shows good balance over the rubber, but needs to work on his finish.
21 Toronto Blue Jays J.P. Arencibia C Tennessee
  Arenciba is a big, strong, right-handed hitting catcher with average arm strength and sound receiving technique. His accuracy falls off on balls away from the center of his body. He's not a good hitter in that he pulls off the ball and fails to cover the outer half of the plate. He struggles on breaking balls. He only hits enough to likely be a third catcher.
22 San Francisco Giants Tim Alderson RHP Horizon HS, Paradise Valley, Ari.
  The Giants get another outstanding pitching prospect with athleticism and a good frame. Alderson seems advanced for his age and could develop in a hurry. He has a solid delivery with only small imperfections that play and coaching should smooth out. He projects as a No. 3 solid starter with three potentially plus pitches.
23 San Diego Padres Nick Schmidt LHP Arkansas
  Schmidt uses his stuff very well, has an excellent feel for pitching, gets ahead of hitters and pitches off fastball. He shows consistent stuff every time out and pitches with stuff and command late into games. He has a nice easy delivery and arm action, which may lead to better command. His changeup can screw hitters into the ground. He is very deceptive with his arm speed, and has very late sinking movement. He has a very slow delivery to the plate with a high slow knee kick. He will be a finesse/command No. 4 starter in the future with some similarities to Andy Pettitte.
24 Texas Rangers Michael Main RHP Deland HS, Deland, Fla.
  Main is an excellent athlete -- a two-way prospect as a pitcher and a center fielder, or possibly a shortstop. He has a live arm, with very good arm speed on all his pitches -- fastball, curveball and changeup. He has very good balance and mound presence. He has plus fastball velocity, with boring and sinking action. As an outfielder, he has an outstanding arm and is a plus runner. His bat and power will improve with more at-bats.
25 Chicago White Sox Aaron Poreda LHP San Francisco
  Poreda is a tall, strong, power arm that gets heavy sink on his fastball. His slider is a potential plus pitch, but his other support pitches are questionable because he has no feel for them. His delivery and arm swing limit him to a degree.
26 Oakland A's James Simmons RHP UC Riverside
  Simmons possesses a good body and a competitive streak. He really pounds the strike zone with his fastball. He's more of a one-pitch pitcher, and his role is difficult to determine, although it looks like he should be a starter. He needs another pitch to be an effective starter. He could wind up late rotation type or a setup man.
27 Detroit Tigers Rick Porcello RHP Seton Hall Prep, West Orange, N.J.
  Porcello was the top prep pitcher on my draft board. He has the potential to be a front-of-the-rotation pitcher with a few minor tweaks needed in his delivery so he can maximize his stuff. His calling card is a mid-90s fastball with good, late tailing action. He throws two curveballs, and he'll raise his arm slot slightly to get on top of them. His better curveball is thrown at 79-80, and is a sharp downer with a very late break. Porcello is a good athlete who is very quick off the mound.
28 Minnesota Twins Ben Revere CF Lexington Catholic HS, Lexington, Ky.
  Revere is my choice for the worst pick of the first round. The Twins had multiple opportunities to get him later. He has a low ceiling. They've taken players like this before -- Denard Span and Matt Moses come to mind -- and they've been unable to develop them. He's like 5-foot-9 outfielder who can run.
29 San Francisco Giants Wendell Fairley CF George County HS, Lucedale, Miss.
  Fairley is one of the more interesting stories in the draft. He's a top-15 guy on raw ability as a hitter and is also a prospect as a pitcher (although he's more of a thrower right now), but he has a rough background and has had a litany of off-field issues, including a hazing incident on the team bus and a potentially more serious incident that's still under investigation. He's not Elijah Dukes, but in an era when the behavior of pro athletes is under a microscope, it's enough to push him down 10-15 spots or more to the Giants' pick here at No. 29.
30 New York Yankees Andrew Brackman RHP North Carolina State
  Brackman's a very tall, athletic, ex-basketball player with fairly clean arm action and a basically sound delivery. He has a superior fastball that could eventually overpower major league hitters. His power curveball will be an out-pitch to both righties and lefties. He shouldn't be rushed. Everything will improve with instruction and innings now that he is concentrating full time on baseball. He has a speciall arm with the chance to become a No. 1 starter, or at worst a No. 3.

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