Is Wisconsin Final Four-bound?

Offensive rebounds, high FT percentage could surge Badgers past Wildcats

Updated: March 29, 2014, 3:01 PM ET
By John Gasaway | ESPN Insider

Ben BrustHarry How/Getty ImagesBen Brust and Wisconsin boast the nation's fourth-best offensive efficiency rate (120.3).

On the surface, Arizona looks like a pretty straightforward No. 1 seed. The Wildcats have advanced to the Elite Eight after winning three games by a combined margin of 38 points, and in fact, prior to the Sweet 16, I rated Sean Miller's club as the second-most likely team to win it all behind only Florida.

Which raises an understandable question. Why am I now writing on the subject of how Arizona may not win it all?

I still like the Wildcats' chances, relatively speaking, but I'll admit that seeing an offense as otherwise unthreatening as San Diego State's put up 64 points in just 57 possessions against this previously outstanding defense did get my attention. That game represented the worst performance of the entire season for the Arizona defense. (Though, as it happens, it's a tie. The Wildcats' D in their 72-70 win at Michigan on Dec. 14 was equally permissive on a per-possession basis. At least that was a true road game against one of the nation's better offenses.) So even though it was undeniably impressive that Nick Johnson came alive for 15 points in the final 2:45, it's also instructive to note that he had to do so.