Vegas experts' NCAA title picks

Three handicappers weigh in with their ATS picks on Michigan-Louisville

Originally Published: April 8, 2013
By Geoff Kulesa, Ted Sevransky and Dave Tuley | Special to ESPN Insider

Rick Pitino Kevin C. Cox/Getty ImagesCan Peyton Siva help Rick Pitino win another national championship on Monday night?

After all the madness, after all the upsets, here we are with a NCAA men's basketball title game between No. 1 Louisville and No. 4 Michigan.

Louisville has (for the most part) lived up to its No. 1 overall seed, and the Cardinals were the 9-2 favorite at the LVH SuperBook heading into the tournament. Michigan was a relative long shot at 18-1, but the Wolverines were the co-ninth betting choice, which is more in line with being a No. 3 seed and right on the cusp of being a No. 2. And this line reflects that as Louisville is favored by about the same number of points as it was against No. 2 Duke.

The line opened between Louisville minus-3.5 and minus-4.5 on Saturday night after the Final Four games were complete and has mostly settled at minus-4 as of this writing on Sunday, although some books have gone to 3.5.

Let's have three Vegas handicappers -- me, Ted Sevransky and Geoff Kulesa of wunderdogsports.com -- look at the matchup from a betting point of view.

Matchup: Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan Wolverines

Spread: Louisville minus-4


Tuley: Louisville still ranks as the best overall team in the tournament, but one could argue that Michigan is playing better as we head into Monday night's title game. The Wolverines are a perfect 5-0 against the spread in the tournament, while the Cardinals have failed to cover two of their past three games (against Oregon and Wichita State), and the Cardinals' only cover was against Duke, when they pulled away in the second half after looking like they were in a dogfight until the Kevin Ware injury. If Louisville puts together a complete game, I'll be worried.


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Dave Tuley has covered the Las Vegas race and sports book scene since 1998 and runs his own website, ViewFromVegas.com.