Giant Killers: Sweet 16 upset odds

Can Florida Gulf Coast or Oregon pull another upset to reach the Elite Eight?

Updated: March 25, 2013, 2:30 PM ET
By Peter Keating | ESPN Insider
Florida Gulf Coast/Oregon DucksUSA TODAY SportsThe Eagles and Ducks will have to overcome long odds to dance to the Elite Eight.

With the first few rounds of the 2013 NCAA tournament in the books, we now turn our Giant Killing attention to the Sweet 16 and the two teams -- Florida Gulf Coast and Oregon -- that could play spoiler en route to earning berths in the Elite Eight.

Although the upstart Eagles and underrated Ducks looked impressive in round of 32 upsets over San Diego State and Saint Louis, respectively, can they continue their magical rides?

Here's a look at what our model has to say about the upset odds surrounding the two Sweet 16 games with GK implications.


South

No. 3 Florida Gators versus No. 15 Florida Gulf Coast Eagles
Upset chance:
4.1 percent

Peter Keating is a senior writer at ESPN The Magazine, where he covers investigative and statistical subjects. He started writing "The Biz," a column looking at sports business from the fan's point of view, in 1999. He also coordinates the Magazine's annual "Ultimate Standings" project, which ranks all pro franchises according to how much they give back to fans. His work on concussions in football has earned awards from the Deadline Club, the New York Press Club and the Center for the Study of Sport in Society.