Giant Killers: Sunday upset odds

Chances that Miami, Kansas, Duke and other favorites fall in Round of 32

Updated: March 23, 2013, 12:10 PM ET
By Peter Keating | ESPN Insider
Kenny Kadji/Jeff Withey/Ryan KellyUSA TODAY Sports/Icon SMIMiami, Kansas and Duke are among the Giants on upset alert in Sunday's games.

Sunday's round of 32 offers a full slate of exciting Giant Killer matchups: seven games, including five in which our statistical model says the underdog has at least a 25 percent chance of winning. With the 7- to 10-seeds stacked with potential Cinderellas and even Florida Gulf Coast packing a slingshot, here's how things break down, region by region.

(For a full explanation of our formula, click here.)

East Region

No. 1 Indiana Hoosiers vs. No. 9 Temple Owls

Upset chance: 7.9 percent

We cite points per 100 possessions as a stat so often around here that you might be wondering who leads the country in that all-important category. The answer, after adjusting for opponent strength: Indiana, at a massive 123.9.

Peter Keating is a senior writer at ESPN The Magazine, where he covers investigative and statistical subjects. He started writing "The Biz," a column looking at sports business from the fan's point of view, in 1999. He also coordinates the Magazine's annual "Ultimate Standings" project, which ranks all pro franchises according to how much they give back to fans. His work on concussions in football has earned awards from the Deadline Club, the New York Press Club and the Center for the Study of Sport in Society.