Giant Killers: Saturday upset odds

Can Colorado State, Oregon, Wichita State or Cal advance to the Sweet 16?

Updated: March 22, 2013, 12:48 PM ET
By Jordan Brenner | ESPN Insider
Dominic ArtisThearon W. Henderson/Getty ImagesCan Dominic Artis and Oregon slay another Giant when they face Saint Louis on Saturday?

Now this is the definition of foresight. No, we're not talking about our model's projections -- they were fine Thursday, but hardly revelatory. Instead, we're thrilled that we shifted our definition of a Giant Killer this year to include power conference teams. That gives us five games to discuss with GK implications on Saturday.

Following Harvard's upset of New Mexico on Thursday, we wrote about the Crimson's chances against Arizona. But what about the other four games involving potential major upsets?

Here's at look at what our model has to say about the upset odds surrounding Saturday's GK-related games.


No. 1 Louisville Cardinals versus No. 8 Colorado State Rams
Upset chance: 17.9 percent

Which team do you want -- the nearly invincible Giant or the supercharged Killer? Louisville will take the floor on Saturday with a 95.4 Giant Rating and a system that wards off pesky lower seeds at every turn. But Colorado State challenges with a 40.2 GK rating, the result of a base power rating that identifies the Rams the 19th-best team in the country (ahead of Marquette, Oklahoma State, New Mexico and Saint Louis) with a massive stone to sling: top-notch rebounding.

Jordan Brenner | email

ESPN The Magazine contributing writer
Brenner writes for ESPN The Magazine and ESPN Insider. He covers the NBA and college basketball.