- Joe Lunardi, Senior Writer, ESPN.com
This edition of "Bracket Math" includes games through Wednesday, March 13. Rankings reflect an up-to-date S-Curve from yours truly, posing as one hypothetical member of the NCAA men's basketball committee.
Notes on the "new" math:
The biggest day of Championship Week is upon us, and we can characterize the most impactful games as follows
• MUST WIN TO STAY IN THE HUNT FOR A NO. 1 SEED: Michigan (versus Penn State, Big Ten first round), Kansas (versus Texas Tech, 3 p.m. ET, ESPN2, Big 12 quarterfinal), Louisville (versus Villanova, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN, Big East quarterfinal).
• NOTHING CHANGES: Minnesota versus Illinois (Big Ten first round), Syracuse versus Pittsburgh (2 p.m. ET, ESPN, Big East quarterfinal), Colorado versus Arizona (Pac-12 quarterfinal), Notre Dame versus Marquette (9 p.m. ET, ESPN, Big East quarterfinal).
• ON THE BUBBLE WITH A LOSS: Iowa State (versus Oklahoma, 12:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2, Big 12 quarterfinal), California (versus Utah, Pac-12 quarterfinal).
• MUST WIN TO STAY ON THE BUBBLE: Southern Miss (versus UAB, Conference USA quarterfinal), Arizona State (versus UCLA, Pac-12 quarterfinal), Tennessee (versus Mississippi State, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN3, SEC second round), Iowa (versus Northwestern, 9 p.m., ESPN2, Big Ten first round), Baylor (versus Oklahoma State, 9:30 p.m., ESPN2, Big 12 quarterfinal).
This is where I project teams would fall if Selection Sunday were today. Remember, the S-Curve flows left to right, then right to left, then back again as you read down the chart.
Joe Lunardi provides an updated look at where every team in the NCAA tournament mix stacks up.