Bracket Math: Latest S-curve

Gonzaga looks primed for top line; Boise, UK still among last four in

Updated: March 12, 2013, 12:08 PM ET
By Joe Lunardi | ESPN Insider

Kelly OlynykRobert Johnson/Icon SMIKelly Olynyk had 21 points and 12 rebounds against Saint Mary's in the WCC title game.

This edition of Bracket Math includes games through Monday, March 11. Rankings reflect an up-to-date S-curve from yours truly, posing as one hypothetical member of the NCAA men's basketball committee.

Notes on the new math:

• Gonzaga solidified its standing as a likely No. 1 seed with its win over Saint Mary's in the WCC championship Monday night. It's hard to see a scenario in which the Zags don't appear on the top line when the brackets are revealed Sunday, as we've never seen an Associated Press No. 1 team that also won its conference tournament be denied a No. 1 seed. How Duke and Indiana perform in their respective conference tournaments will play a big role in which team gets the No. 1 overall seed.

• Thanks to the Big East, today is the slowest day of Championship Week. There are only two games at Madison Square Garden tonight, and neither involves a worrisome team from a bracket standpoint. Gone are the days when a four-game Tuesday marathon involved any number of potential bubble teams.

• Was it only two years ago that Connecticut won the first of 11-straight elimination games to capture the Big East and NCAA tournament titles? Those Huskies were a No. 9 seed in New York and went just 9-9 in conference play. So in honor of UConn, and the current Huskies that cannot participate, I hereby name a trophy -- The Kemba -- for any team that can win five games in five days to reach the NCAAs.

• Most impactful Tuesday games: championships in the Northeast Conference, Horizon League and Summit League, but none involve potential at-larges. Also, Princeton plays Penn at the Palestra in an Ivy League game that is never meaningless.

The Bracket

This is where I project where teams would fall if Selection Sunday were today. Remember, the S-Curve flows left to right, then right to left, then back again as you read down the chart.

Joe Lunardi | email

Senior Writer, ESPN.com