Bracket Math: Duke takes top spot
La Salle, Boise State, Kentucky, Virginia last four in; Cardinals a No. 1 seed
This edition of Bracket Math includes games through March 10. Rankings reflect an up-to-date S-curve from yours truly, posing as one hypothetical member of the NCAA men's basketball committee.
Notes on the "new" math:
• We've officially come full circle since the start of 2013. Duke was the clear No. 1 overall seed when the calendar turned to January, and the Blue Devils have regained that perch after giving it up to several challengers during the span of Ryan Kelly's injury. But now that Kelly is back and the Devils have posted an impressive road win with him in the lineup, there is nothing to question about Duke's credentials. If the Blue Devils capture the ACC tournament, they will be 21-0 with Kelly in the lineup and first on the S-curve come Selection Sunday night.
• Just a note that we raise the tourney odds to 90 percent for all teams listed in green from this point forward. As you can see, there really aren't many spots left in the field. In the unlikely event a team drops out of this near-lock status, we're talking no more than a half-dozen spots in play during the next seven days and nights.
• Only one impactful Monday game: St. Mary's vs. Gonzaga (WCC title). A Gonzaga win should assure the Bulldogs a No. 1 seed for the first time in school history. Anything other than an overwhelming defeat should keep the Gaels in the projected NCAA field.
This is where I project teams would fall if Selection Sunday were today. Remember, the S-curve flows left to right, then right to left, then back again as you read down the chart.
To read more from Joe Lunardi on how the bubble looks, find out which weekend games are most impactful and see how the latest S-curve breaks down, sign up for ESPN Insider today.
MORE MEN'S COLLEGE BASKETBALL HEADLINES
- Ex-Rutgers coach Rice receiving counseling
- Florida Intl. guard Smith transfers to Minnesota
- Black transfers to Kansas, can play right away
- Report: Coach K considering Team USA return
MOST SENT STORIES ON ESPN.COM
Insider CBB content
• Gasaway/Rankin: Ohio State Buckeyes
• Greenberg/Finkelstein: Memphis Tigers
• Gasaway/Rankin: Florida Gators
• Greenberg/Telep: Kentucky Wildcats
• Gasaway/Finkelstein: Louisville Cardinals
• Gasaway/Finkelstein: Syracuse Orange
• Greenberg/Biancardi: NC State Wolfpack
• Biancardi/Gasaway: Duke Blue Devils
• Biancardi/Gasaway: North Carolina Tar Heels
• Biancardi/Gasaway: Arizona Wildcats
• Greenberg/Telep: UCLA Bruins
• Lunardi: Could Louisville repeat as champs?
• Greenberg: UVA tops list of surprise teams
• Fraschilla: How returning stars can improve
• Gasaway: Top title challengers to Kentucky
• Lunardi: Who will earn No. 1 seeds in 2014?
• Fraschilla: How top recruits can improve
• Pomeroy: Next season's All-American teams
• Gasaway: Top freshmen for 2012-13
• Bilas: Kentucky tops 2013-14 rankings
• Rankin: What Wiggins means for Kansas
• Biancardi: KU to prep Wiggins for NBA success
• Telep: Updated look at top recruits
• Roundtable: Most impressive on AAU circuit?
• Recruiting: Top battles for elite prospects
• Finkelstein: Minnesota's new approach
• Biancardi: Class of 2013 Dream Team
• Roundtable: Bold predictions for 2013 classes
• Rankin: Top 5 sleeper recruiting classes
• Ford: Winners from the NBA draft combine
• Fraschilla: Burke the draft's top point guard?
• Ford: Measurements concern some GMs
• Ford: Why Wiggins would go No. 1 in 2013
• Ford: Mock Draft 2.0
• Ford: McCollum among top sleeper prospects
• Fraschilla: The case for taking Len over Noel
• Ford: An early look at the 2014 NBA draft
• Ford: Ranking the top 30 NBA draft prospects
• Ford: Who's in, who's out of draft?
Jay Bilas Blog
Jay's take on latest from around the nation
Analysis from Fraschilla, Greenberg and Lunardi
Get news and rumblings before anyone
Hollinger's College PER
College basketball's top players
Get wagering advice for every game