Gonzaga takes top overall spot
Indiana drops to No. 3 overall; SEC teams fighting to stay in field
This edition of "Bracket Math" includes games through Tuesday. Rankings reflect an up-to-date S-curve from yours truly, posing as one hypothetical member of the NCAA men's basketball committee.
Notes on the "new" math:
• One could make a legitimate argument that the current No. 1 seeds -- Gonzaga, Kansas, Indiana and Georgetown -- would lose a round-robin against the current No. 2 seeds (Duke, Louisville, Miami and Michigan). And the No. 3 seeds aren't exactly chopped liver. In other words, seeding will matter less than matchups and momentum on Selection Sunday. Let's also expect the most movement ever within the top quadrant of the bracket in the days leading up to selections.
• I'll say it right now: None of the current SEC bubble teams -- Tennessee, Ole Miss, Alabama and Arkansas -- is worthy of the NCAA tournament. None of them can win on the road, and most played terrible schedules. I'll give Kentucky a pass for now given Nerlens Noel's injury, but eventually the new Cats need to show us something away from Rupp Arena. In the meantime, if any of these teams takes a spot from Belmont or Middle Tennessee (should either need one), it would be a crime. In this season's lousy SEC, I'm convinced that both of those mid-majors would go at least .500.
• Most impactful Wednesday games: Georgetown at Villanova, Temple at Fordham, Iowa State at Oklahoma State, Maryland at North Carolina, Tennessee at Auburn.
• Most impactful Thursday games: Kentucky at Georgia, Louisiana Tech at New Mexico State, Wisconsin at Michigan State.
This is where I project teams would fall if Selection Sunday were today. Remember, the S-curve flows left to right, then right to left, then back again as you read down the chart.
To read about why Gonzaga will be the top overall seed, and to see how the latest S-curve breaks down, sign up for ESPN Insider today.
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