- Joe Lunardi, Senior Writer, ESPN.com
This edition of Bracket Math includes games through Saturday, March 2. Rankings reflect an up-to-date S-curve from yours truly, posing as one hypothetical member of the NCAA men's basketball committee.
Notes on the "new" math:
• So Duke Blue Devils fans are angry because I haven't put them back on the top line, this despite trailing Miami by two full games in the ACC and being outscored by the Hurricanes by 24 points in two meetings. The fact of the matter is that Duke has the worst road record (4-4) of any team on the top two lines and we may need a "rubber game" between the two before either regains a No. 1 seed.
• Georgetown, on the other hand, has won 11 straight in a better conference and now has road victories over Notre Dame, Cincinnati, Syracuse and Connecticut. The Hoyas have a daunting final week -- at Villanova and a revenge encounter with the Orange -- so their hold on our fourth No. 1 seed may be tenuous. This is going down to the wire, and the committee is going to have to pay more attention than usual to selection weekend games in the major conferences to get it right.
• A fairly uncomplicated bubble picture was completely blown apart on Saturday, especially in the SEC. Pay close attention to the following sentence and you'll have a better understanding of why Tennessee sits in the final at-large spot: Not all conference schedules are created equal, and the Vols (No. 69) are a good bit ahead of league brethren Alabama (No. 123), Kentucky (No. 103), Ole Miss (No. 121) and Arkansas (No. 93) in that category.
• Most impactful Monday games: Kansas (versus Texas Tech), Norfolk State (versus Florida A&M), Baylor (at Texas).
• Most impactful Tuesday games: Big South quarterfinals, Southern Miss (at Marshall), Arkansas (at Missouri), Ohio (at Buffalo), Providence (versus Seton Hall), Ohio State at Indiana, Alabama at Ole Miss, Boise State (at UNLV).
This is where I project teams would fall if Selection Sunday were today. Remember, the S-curve flows left to right, then right to left, then back again as you read down the chart.
Joe Lunardi provides an updated look at where every team in the NCAA tournament mix stacks up, including Georgetown, which rose to a No. 1 seed.