Betting Wednesday's top games

Picking ATS winners for the biggest college basketball games

Originally Published: February 27, 2013
By Dave Tuley | ESPN Insider
Otto PorterMitchell Layton/Getty ImagesOtto Porter Jr. and Georgetown sit atop the Big East heading into tonight.

Every week for the rest of the college basketball season, Dave Tuley will resume his Tuley's Take on the big midweek games with a piece on Tuesday and another on Wednesday as we head toward the conference tournaments (his favorite time to find live underdogs in recent years) and into March Madness. He'll give a projected point spread and pick for each.

Tuesday night was highlighted by upsets, with Minnesota knocking off No. 1 Indiana, Tennessee beating No. 8 Florida and Xavier defeating No. 19 Memphis. I was glad to have all three in my Tuesday column for ESPN Insider.

I did lose with Auburn and Wake Forest failing to cover in their games to go 3-2 ATS overall, but as I posted in the comments and on Twitter, "I'll take 60% all day/all night." Including last week, that makes my top plays 6-3 ATS, 6-4 if counting that Miami (Fla.) kinda-sorta-but-not-really pick from last week.

Also in the comments Tuesday, ESPN Insider subscriber justgiants posted, "I too can pick every underdog." But I'll reiterate that even though nearly every team I choose to bet is an underdog, I don't pick every underdog. There's a difference. There were 12 games in major college basketball Tuesday night. Underdogs covered six and favorites covered six, so you still have to pick the right ones to show a profit. While I did take the 'dog in all five games Tuesday night, that's because I liked all five and felt the points they were getting represented betting value.

That's not always the case, as we'll see when we look at Wednesday's games, plus a glance at Duke-Virginia on Thursday night thrown in for good measure.

Wednesday's games

Georgetown Hoyas at UConn Huskies

Projected point spread: Georgetown minus-3
PickCenter breakdown

What did my three wins Tuesday night have in common? Besides the obvious that they were all underdogs, they were all home 'dogs. I'm sure a lot of people are assuming I'll automatically take the home 'dog here, but this is where I'll show I can be selective. This number has come up too short for my liking, and it's 2.5 at a lot of books. Georgetown leads the Big East, and there has been speculation that the Hoyas could be a No. 1 seed (though Joe Lunardi has them on the 2-line).

Dave Tuley has covered the Las Vegas race and sports book scene since 1998 and runs his own website,