Bracket Math: IU's clear path

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This edition of Bracket Math includes games through Feb. 19. Rankings reflect an up-to-date S-curve from yours truly, posing as one hypothetical member of the NCAA men's basketball committee.

Notes on the "new" math:

• The first piece of the 2013 Final Four came into much clearer focus Tuesday night. Indiana's win at Michigan State gives the Hoosiers what amounts to a two-game lead in the Big Ten standings, with only four games to play. If the Hoosiers can win three of those four -- at Minnesota, Iowa, Ohio State, at Michigan -- the conference title is theirs, along with a nearly certain No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. And because that No. 1 seed figures to come with a Midwest Regional assignment in Indianapolis ... you can see where I'm going with this. The Hoosiers aren't losing any tournament games in their home state, so it should be off to Atlanta for IU.

To read more from Joe Lunardi on how the bubble looks, which weekend games are most impactful and see how the latest S-curve breaks down, sign up for ESPN Insider today.

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Joe Lunardi | email

Senior Writer, ESPN.com

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• Resident college basketball bracketologist for ESPN
• Contributor to SportsCenter, ESPN Insider
• Published first public bracket in 1995