Duke, Kansas on upset alert

Duke, coming off a loss at Miami (FL), is hoping to avoid another upset against Maryland. Lance King/Getty Images

Every Friday during the college basketball season, Ted Sevransky (better known as Teddy Covers) will provide ESPN Insiders with his picks on Saturday's biggest games, along with a few under-the-radar matchups. He'll give a projected point spread and pick for each.

Maryland Terrapins at Duke Blue Devils

Projected point spread: Duke -12 to -14

The knee-jerk reaction among some bettors is to look to support Duke off a loss. However, a hard look at the data shows that the Blue Devils have been long-term money losers against the spread following an ACC defeat over the past 15 years. Four late free throws got Duke backers the money following their last loss in a 16-point win over Georgia Tech as 15-point favorite.

But the Blue Devils' 27-point blowout loss earlier this week was different from their competitive defeat at the hands of N.C. State -- it was a confidence shaker. Seth Curry, Quinn Cook and Tyler Thornton combined to shoot 1-of-29 from the floor against Miami's stout defense, and Maryland ranks No. 2 in the country in defensive field goal percentage.