Duke, Kansas on upset alert

Making ATS picks for Saturday's biggest college basketball games

Updated: January 25, 2013, 12:36 PM ET
By Ted Sevransky | ESPN Insider
Duke basketballLance King/Getty ImagesDuke, coming off a loss at Miami (FL), is hoping to avoid another upset against Maryland.

Every Friday during the college basketball season, Ted Sevransky (better known as Teddy Covers) will provide ESPN Insiders with his picks on Saturday's biggest games, along with a few under-the-radar matchups. He'll give a projected point spread and pick for each.

Maryland Terrapins at Duke Blue Devils

Projected point spread: Duke -12 to -14

The knee-jerk reaction among some bettors is to look to support Duke off a loss. However, a hard look at the data shows that the Blue Devils have been long-term money losers against the spread following an ACC defeat over the past 15 years. Four late free throws got Duke backers the money following their last loss in a 16-point win over Georgia Tech as 15-point favorite.

But the Blue Devils' 27-point blowout loss earlier this week was different from their competitive defeat at the hands of N.C. State -- it was a confidence shaker. Seth Curry, Quinn Cook and Tyler Thornton combined to shoot 1-of-29 from the floor against Miami's stout defense, and Maryland ranks No. 2 in the country in defensive field goal percentage.

Ted Sevransky, better known as Teddy Covers, has been handicapping sports in Vegas since 1998.