The 2012 BPI bracket picks

BPI likes Kentucky to win the NCAA tournament, but another title pick could optimize your bracket. Chris Graythen/Getty Images

Filling out an NCAA tournament bracket each March can be a fool's errand. Once in a while, things go according to plan and the better teams reach the Final Four, with one of the No. 1 seeds taking home the national title.

But frequently (like last year), upsets dominate the bracket, with higher seeds exiting early and Cinderellas taking over. Those tournaments leave college basketball experts looking silly and make a person with no real basketball knowledge look like a genius for predicting the correct matchup and nearly the exact final score of last year's championship game.

There's obviously a lot of randomness when it comes to predicting who will advance in the tournament, which is part of what makes it truly "March Madness." That being said, statistical analysis and forecasting can help make educated guesses about how to fill out your bracket intelligently, increasing the chances of finishing higher in your office pool over several years.