No 12-5 upsets this tourney

However, in 2012 even the most casual "three-week" college basketball fans know about the 12-5 upset. Every year a plucky small-school 12-seed with weird uniforms shocks a talented but lethargic and underachieving 5 from a major conference. It's the circle of hoops life, right?

Well, sort of. Last year, Vanderbilt obligingly supplied the only 12-5 upset when it lost to Richmond. The Golden Age of this particular brand of upset, however, was clearly 2009, when the feisty 12s went 3-1 against the poor, overmatched 5s. That year, Arizona beat Utah, Wisconsin beat Florida State and Western Kentucky beat Illinois. (Yes, young people, there was once a time when Utah and Illinois had basketball teams capable of making the NCAA tournament. Take my word for it.)

You have to go all the way back to 2007 to find the last NCAA tournament in which there wasn't at least one 12-5 upset. So, yes, there's good reason to expect that one of these "unexpected" outcomes will indeed occur this week.

But I'm going to crawl way out on a limb and put my money on the truly unexpected: I think the No. 5 seeds this year will go 4-0. I predict that New Mexico will beat Long Beach State, Vanderbilt will triumph over Harvard, Wichita State will take care of Virginia Commonwealth and Temple will prevail over either California or South Florida.

To read more about why there won't be any 12-5 upsets this tournament, become an Insider today.

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John Gasaway

ESPN Insider

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• ESPN Insider college basketball contributor
• First began covering college hoops in 2004
• Has written for Basketball Prospectus and the Wall Street Journal