Key games decide bubble, top seed

Do-or-die time for fringe teams; last No. 1 seed up for grabs

Updated: March 10, 2014, 12:19 PM ET
By Joe Lunardi | ESPN Insider

Villanova WildcatsEvan Habeeb/USA TODAY SportsVillanova has a No. 1 seed ... for now. Can the Cats hold on?

Welcome back to the expanded edition of Joe Lunardi's Rundown. This series features tournament odds, an element that will take you deeper into Bracketology. Bracketology provides a snapshot of how the bracket looks on a specific day, but through the use of Lunardi's extensive database of previous seasons, tournament odds tell you how the bracket is likely to look come Selection Sunday.

Top-line report

Barring anything truly unusual, three of the four No. 1 seeds are set. So let's take a look at the individual team scenarios to see how the top line projects on Selection Sunday:

Wichita State Shockers: The Shockers will be a No. 1 seed, most likely in the Midwest, and begin a new quest to turn their 34-0 record into a historic 40-0 season. Losses elsewhere, particularly by Florida, could elevate Wichita State to No. 1 overall.

Florida Gators: The Gators are also a lock No. 1 seed and most likely No. 1 overall should they reach the SEC championship game unscathed. Even a loss in that Selection Sunday contest would not drop Florida from the top line.

Arizona Wildcats: The Wildcats stumbled in their regular-season finale but should remain a No. 1 seed with a win in the Pac-12 quarterfinals. Arizona will face the winner of Utah-Washington on Thursday, and only a loss to the Huskies would be damaging.

Now, on to the fourth No. 1, where things get a little less clear ...

Joe Lunardi | email

Senior Writer, ESPN.com