Who will be the last unbeaten?

Simulating how long Wildcats, Shockers, Orange, Badgers will stay undefeated

Updated: January 14, 2014, 12:04 PM ET
By Ken Pomeroy | ESPN Insider

Don't let people tell you otherwise: With Wichita State's comeback win at Missouri State on Saturday, and Arizona's dominating performance at USC on Sunday, the chances of at least one team making it to its conference tournament with a perfect record have reached the realistic zone. Therefore, it's time to have a frank discussion about that possibility.

Joining the Shockers and Wildcats in the undefeated ranks are Syracuse and Wisconsin, both of whom figure to be the favorite to win their conference's regular-season title. (It's another argument whether Wisconsin is truly the best in the Big Ten, but their relatively weak conference schedule gives them an edge over the other contenders.)

Don't get me wrong, the undefeated goal is still very much a dream. The odds of each of these teams going unbeaten, even just in the regular season, are still rather long. While a lot of people are giving their gut feeling on when each of the unbeatens will fall, it seems appropriate to add a more scientific approach to the discussion.

So I simulated the rest of the regular season 1 million times to figure out which team is most likely to be the last unbeaten standing. From these simulations, I also determined the most likely first loss for each team and its chances of going unbeaten through the rest of conference play.

Let's look at the findings, with the four teams ranked in order of their odds of being the final undefeated team this season.


To read Ken Pomeroy's undefeated odds for the four remaining unbeaten teams, sign up for Insider today.