The historical success of Giant Killers 
As the NCAA tournament field of 64 teams tipped off Thursday, we thought we'd hit the GK Mailbag to answer your questions, address your concerns and share further thoughts on the meaning of life. Speaking of which, keep those comments coming -- you can write to us here.
The Historical Record
We try to improve our statistical model every year, and that always leads to a bunch of questions. For one thing, we often get asked how our GK and Vulnerability Scores have translated into actual performance. So here's the deal. Since 2004, 32 Killers -- an average of five per season -- have slayed a total of 40 Giants. According to our updated model, just two teams, UNLV in 2007 and Davidson in 2008, have rated above 60, and both turned out to be Killers. Furthermore:
Of teams with GK Scores of 50 or above, six of eight (75 percent) became Killers.
Of teams with GK Scores of 40 or more but less than 50, 13 of 24 (54.2 percent) became Killers.
Of teams with GK Scores of 30 or more but less than 40, five of 16 (31.3 percent) became Killers.
Of teams with GK Scores of 20 or more but less than 30, four of 28 (14.3 percent) became Killers.
Of teams with GK Scores or 10 or more but less than 20, two of 41 (4.9 percent) became Killers.
Of teams with GK Scores of 2 or more but less than 10, two of 26 (7.7 percent) became Killers.
None of the 42 teams rated less than 2 wound up killing a Giant. The lowest-scoring team to slay a Giant was Bucknell in 2005 (5.9).
On the other side of the ball, the four Giants rating as most vulnerable in our database, led by Vanderbilt in 2008 (60.2), went on to lose to Killers. Digging a little deeper:
Of teams with Vulnerability Scores of 50 or above, six of eight (75 percent) lost to Killers.
Of teams with Vulnerability Scores of 40 or more but less than 50, seven of 18 (38.9 percent) lost to Killers.
Of teams with Vulnerability Scores of 30 or more but less than 40, 11 of 31 (35.4 percent) lost to Killers.
Of teams with Vulnerability Scores of 20 or more but less than 30, eight of 41 (19.5 percent) lost to Killers.
Of teams with Vulnerability Scores or 10 or more but less than 20, six of 41 (14.6 percent) lost to Killers.
Of teams with Vulnerability Scores of 2 or more but less than 10, one of 23 (4.3 percent) lost to a Killer.
And of the 20 teams rated less than 2, one was in fact taken out by a Killer (5 percent) -- West Virginia in 2009. If our model had a head, it would still be pulling out its hair over that one.
A few programs seem to breed successful Killers and unsafe Giants even as their players change from season to season. Since 2004, four VCU teams (2007, 2009, 2011 and this season), more than any other school, have had GK Scores above 30, putting them in territory where underdogs have historically had a better-than-even shot at pulling off huge upsets. Meanwhile, Notre Dame and Vanderbilt have been in the extreme danger zone as Giants five times apiece. And fans wonder why we use the Commodores in headlines and photos!
And now, on to some specific questions from readers:
To see the user questions submitted to the mailbag and get more info on NCAA tournament upsets, you must be an ESPN Insider.
Jordan Brenner | email
ESPN The Magazine contributing writerABOUT THIS BLOG
Giant Killers Blog
Giant Killers is Insider's annual metrics-based forecast of NCAA tournament upsets. A Giant Killer is a team that beats a tourney opponent seeded at least five spots higher. For a full explanation of our model, click here.
Peter Keating
Peter Keating is a senior writer at ESPN The Magazine, where he has covered investigative and financial stories since 1999. His work on concussions in football has earned awards from the Deadline Club, the New York Press Club and the Center for the Study of Sport in Society. He joined the Giant Killers team in 2008.
Follow Peter Keating on Twitter.
Jordan Brenner
Jordan Brenner is a contributing writer for ESPN The Magazine and ESPN Insider. He has covered pro and college basketball for the last decade and launched the Giant Killers project in 2006.
Follow Jordan Brenner on Twitter.
