Tournament Guide: Providence résumé

Originally Published: March 14, 2004
By By Tom Durso | Bracketologist

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Providence's complete Bracketology chart
Take a look inside the data used by the tournament selection committee in seeding the bracket.

Team Data
Points Per Game
Points Allowed
Scoring Margin 		71.7 ppg
64.1 ppg
+7.6 		FG pct.
FG allowed
3-PT pct.
3-PT allowed
3PT ratio (of FG) FT pct.
FT totals 		.453
.419
.371
.328
.321
.720
376/287 		Reb. Margin
TO Margin
Asst:TO ratio
Asst:FG ratio 		+0.3 rpg
-0.4 tpg
1.07
.644


Individual Numbers
Starters
Pos. Player Min. Basics Good Bad Notes
1

2

3

4

5 		D. McGrath
(6-4, 190, SO)
Sheiku Kabba
(6-2, 200, SR)
Rob Sanders
(6-6, 215, JR)
Ryan Gomes
(6-7, 245, JR)
M. Douthit
(6-10, 235, SR) 		33.8

29.9

26.6

34.7

30.3 		10.4 ppg, 3.5 apg

10.1 ppg, 3.3 rpg

11.1 ppg, 4.5 apg

19.0 ppg, 9.5 rpg

8.0 ppg, 5.9 rpg 		.382 3PT

.824 FT

.503 FG

.513 FG

3.4 bpg 		.403 FG

1.9 tpg

.544 FT

4 blocks

2.6 tpg 		Nearly 3/4 of his shots are 3PT attempts.
He completes sharp-shooting backcourt.
Decent mid-range player.

All-Conference pick is undisputed star.
Shot-blocking talent is trouble for opponents.
Rotation
Pos. Player Min. Basics Good Bad Notes
F

G 		Tuuka Kotti
(6-9, 220, JR)
D. Brewington
(6-5, 190, FR) 		21.6

20.0 		6.0 ppg, 3.5 rpg

6.0 ppg, 2.5 rpg 		.556 3PT

1.0 spg 		.576 FT

.296 3PT 		Tested big man played in all 27 games.
Played his way into a lot of minutes for a frosh.


Season notes
High Point Providence's 66-56 win over UConn in Hartford was perhaps the Friars' most impressive performance in a season full of them.
Low Point The Friars ended the regular season with two straight losses, including a skittish 63-54 upset by Boston College at home, then lost their third straight to Villanova in the Big East tournament.
Most Revealing Moment The Friars' 19-point trashing of then-No. 14 Illinois in the Jimmy V Classic Dec. 9 shocked some, but really was a harbinger of just how dangerous this team would become.
Did You Know? Providence blocked nearly 100 more shots and attempted nearly 100 more free throws than its opponents.


Scouting report
Offensive Preference High-percentage shots and open 3PT looks resulted in 45.3 percent shooting and more than 71 points per game.
Defensive Philosophy Tim Welsh's 2-3 zone is a given, and most nights it worked like a charm.
Secret Strength McGrath and Kabba combined for 113 treys, allowing Gomes the room to work inside.
Achilles Heel After Gomes, the frontcourt gets thin fast.
Will Lose When ... Providence occasionally got starry-eyed this year, and it is about to play the country's best teams.
Famous Last Words The Friars have enough firepower to hang with just about anyone, but what will they do if their go-to guy is off?


Tournament History (1985-2003) Overall NCAA History
NCAA appearances: 6 (of 19)
Seed average: 9.17
Highest seed No. 6 (1987)
Lowest seed: No. 12 (1989)
Biggest upset: 1997 vs. No. 2 Duke
Most upsetting: 1994 vs. No. 9 Alabama
Bracketology score: 1.63 		NCAA appearances: 14
All-time record: 14-15 (.483)
Best finish: 1987, Final Four
Coach's NCAA record: Tim Welsh (0-2, .000)


Quad comparison
Kansas City
            Inside N-C Luna     vs.  vs.  Bad Cls Lst   
Team      Sd  RPI  RPI RPI SOS 1-25 26-50  L   L  10   B-Scr OffQ  DefQ  ASM
Kansas     4  14   19  21   7  0-4   3-2   0   1  6-4  0.97  7.2   4.8   12.0
Prov.      5  20   24  11  11  4-3   4-1   1   3  6-4  1.63  4.6   5.6   10.2
Ill.-Chi. 13  87  126  79  245 0-1   0-0   5   3 10-0  1.00  1.5   5.2    6.7
Pacific   12  64  177  61  155 0-2   2-1   4   2 10-0  1.00  1.7   4.8    6.5
Quad Comparison Key
InsideRPI Insider's replication of the Ratings Percentage Index.
N-C RPI RPI in non-conference games only.
LunaRPI Joe Lunardi's "predictive" RPI.
SOS Strenth of Schedule (all games).
1-25 Record vs. 1-25 RPI teams.
26-50 Record vs. 26-50 RPI teams.
Bad Loss Losses to teams ranked below 150 in the RPI.
Close Loss Losses by 3 points or less or in overtime.
Last 10 Record in Last 10 games before tourney.
B-Score Bracketology Scores measure whether a team more often "exceeds" its seed or "falls short" of expectation (average B-Score is 1.00).
OffQ Offensive Quotient (average points per game by which a team exceeds/falls below the aggregate defense of its opponents).
DefQ Defensive Quotient (average points per game allowed below/above the aggregate offense of its opponents).
ASM Adjusted Scoring Margin (OffQ+DefQ) has accurately predicted 10 of the last 16 Final Four participants).

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