Tournament Guide: Stanford résumé

Originally Published: March 14, 2004
By By Jeff Faraudo | Bracketologist

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Stanford's complete Bracketology chart
Take a look inside the data used by the tournament selection committee in seeding the bracket.

Team Data
Points Per Game
Points Allowed
Scoring Margin
74.2 ppg
60.9 ppg
+13.3
FG pct.
FG allowed
3-PT pct.
3-PT allowed
3PT ratio (of FG) FT pct.
FT totals
.480
.396
.370
.349
.201
.755
438/309
Reb. Margin
TO Margin
Asst:TO ratio
Asst:FG ratio
+6.6 rpg
+0.8 tpg
1.16
.629


Individual Numbers
Starters
Pos. Player Min. Basics Good Bad Notes
1

2

3

4

5
Chris Hernandez
(6-2, 190, SO)
Matt Lottich
(6-4, 205, SR)
Josh Childress
(6-8, 205, JR)
Nick Robinson
(6-6, 200, JR)
Rob Little
(6-10, 265, JR)
30.8

30.2

28.8

26.0

24.4
10.6 ppg, 4.7 apg

12.3 ppg, 3.7 rpg

15.2 ppg, 7.4 rpg

6.6 ppg, 3.7 rpg

10.3 ppg, 5.4 rpg
.921 FT

.855 FT

.433 3PT

.675 FT

.588 FG
.465 FG

.401 FG

2.1 tpg

.675 FT

.536 FT
Tough, relentless leader.

Unafraid to take big shot; underrated defender.
Caught fire in Feb. after missing nine games.
Versatile player who has filled in where needed.
Has improved stamina and is steady low-post presence.
Rotation
Pos. Player Min. Basics Good Bad Notes
F

F
Justin Davis
(6-9, 230, SR)
Matt Haryasz
(6-10, 225, SO)
22.3

17.6
11.5 ppg, 6.9 rpg

7.0 ppg, 4.4 rpg
.578 FG

.511 FG
.606 FT

1.2 tpg
Missed 10 games with knee injury; return is key.
Rangy big man with strong offensive skills.


Season notes
High Point There have been a few, but Nick Robinson's 35-foot, running 3-pointer to beat Arizona and virtually end the Pac-10 race was huge.
Low Point Not much to choose from here, but with a chance to become the first 18-0 team in Pac-10 history, the Cardinal didn't seem its aggressive self in the closing loss at Washington.
Most Revealing Moment Stanford didn't trail often this season, but was down 19 in the second half at Oregon's McArthur Court, a notoriously tough place for visitors. Chris Hernandez scored all 22 of his points in the second half and virtually willed an 83-80 victory.
Did You Know? Josh Childress was voted Pac-10 Player of the Year despite not playing during the pre-conference season.


Scouting report
Offensive Preference Stanford can play the game various ways. The Cardinal is a traditionally strong half court offensive team, and has the combination of good big men and excellent perimeter shooters to make it work.
Defensive Philosophy Stanford mixes man-to-man with zone, but plays a conservative, position-style defense. The Cardinal almost never presses, but rebounds extremely well.
Secret Strength It goes against the reputation, but Stanford runs a very capable fast break.
Achilles Heel Power forward Justin Davis missed 10 straight games entering the Pac-10 Tournament with a knee injury, and his absence diminishes the Cardinal, especially against physical opponents. He will be rusty at best for the NCAAs, but Stanford needs his body on the floor.
Will Lose When ... Stanford was put back on its heels by Washington's quickness and aggressiveness. But it's only happened once, so it's hard to know if that's a weakness or just one bad day.
Famous Last Words The pressure of staying perfect is now gone, and that may give Stanford a fresh outlook for the postseason.


Tournament History (1985-2003) Overall NCAA History
NCAA appearances: 11 (of 19)
Seed average: 5.36
Highest seed No. 1 (2000, 2001)
Lowest seed: No. 12 (1992)
Biggest upset: 1997 vs. No. 3 Wake Forest
Most upsetting: 1989 vs. No. 14 Sienna
Bracketology score: 0.86
NCAA appearances: 12
All-time record: 18-11 (.621)
Best finish: 1942, national champions
Coach's NCAA record: Mike Montgomery (15-11, .577)


Quad comparison
Seattle
            Inside N-C Luna     vs.  vs.  Bad Cls Lst   
Team      Sd  RPI  RPI RPI SOS 1-25 26-50  L   L  10   B-Scr OffQ  DefQ   ASM
Stanford   1   6    29  4  104  2-0  2-0   0   0  9-1  0.86   2.2  11.2  13.4
S.Antonio 16  199  291 152 290  0-1  0-0  10   3  9-1  1.00   3.1   0.0   3.1
So.Ill.    9  25    41 19  101  0-0  0-1   0   0  8-2  1.40   3.6   5.9   9.5
Alabama    8  26    5  26   1   2-6  2-5   0   4  6-4  0.96   5.7   3.9   9.6
Quad Comparison Key
InsideRPI Insider's replication of the Ratings Percentage Index.
N-C RPI RPI in non-conference games only.
LunaRPI Joe Lunardi's "predictive" RPI.
SOS Strenth of Schedule (all games).
1-25 Record vs. 1-25 RPI teams.
26-50 Record vs. 26-50 RPI teams.
Bad Loss Losses to teams ranked below 150 in the RPI.
Close Loss Losses by 3 points or less or in overtime.
Last 10 Record in Last 10 games before tourney.
B-Score Bracketology Scores measure whether a team more often "exceeds" its seed or "falls short" of expectation (average B-Score is 1.00).
OffQ Offensive Quotient (average points per game by which a team exceeds/falls below the aggregate defense of its opponents).
DefQ Defensive Quotient (average points per game allowed below/above the aggregate offense of its opponents).
ASM Adjusted Scoring Margin (OffQ+DefQ) has accurately predicted 10 of the last 16 Final Four participants).

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