The Bracketology Report: Georgia
Editor's note: Each week Bracketology Insider will take an in-depth look at teams headed for the NCAA Tournament ... or not.
Week in review
The first time Georgia (InsideRPI No. 48, SOS No. 25) upset Kentucky (InsideRPI No. 3, SOS No. 11), the Bulldogs lost their next three, essentially announcing to the world that beating the Wildcats was a fluke. It was a fluke no more when Georgia pulled the surprise for a second time two weeks ago, and then managed to follow it with wins over Tennessee (InsideRPI No. 73, SOS No. 54) and Florida (InsideRPI No. 15 RPI, SOS No. 2).
The three-game winning streak has matched the Bulldogs' longest of the season, and that one came in mid-December against the likes of Clemson, South Alabama and Charleston Southern. In other words, Georgia appears to be rounding into form at just the right time.
Yet the Bulldogs are still only in fourth-place in the SEC East, and they have only one road win in conference play. Fortunately for them, that victory came at Rupp Arena.
Georgia's spot in the projected NCAA field is as tenuous as it gets. The Bulldogs need more wins, especially more road wins, to make their profile more convincing. The current winning streak and the sweep of Kentucky have them in this position, but holding onto an at-large bid may come down to Saturday's game at South Carolina (InsideRPI No. 46 RPI, SOS No. 107) and next Wednesday's visit to Florida (InsideRPI No. 15, SOS No. 2). Both opponents have changed dramatically since their respective first meetings with the Bulldogs.
The Gamecocks took Georgia apart in Athens early last month, 84-63, but have now lost four of their last five starts. Meanwhile, Georgia's 12-point win over Florida 12 days ago was part of a four-losses-in-five-games streak for the Gators. Even with the Bulldogs' short bench, they were able to outscore Florida by 19 in the second half. The Gators have since recovered somewhat to win three of their last five games.
The Bulldogs are No. 38 this week on The Bracketology Report national seeding chart. This makes Georgia a No. 10 seed.
Georgia's place in the projected NCAA field is due almost entirely to the two wins over Kentucky. Until very recently, the Bulldogs hadn't played all that well against anyone other than the Wildcats. And even the victory in Lexington hasn't cured Georgia's road deficiencies. Other than beating Clemson on a neutral floor, the Bulldogs haven't won anything outside of Athens.
Georgia's lack of depth is also something to watch. Dennis Felton has had to lean heavily on his starters in the last couple of weeks. Essentially all the production, and now even more of the minutes, are going to the top five in the rotation. Senior point guard Rashad Wright has rested a total of five minutes during the winning streak.
Games of the Week Georgia fans should root FOR and AGAINST the teams in ALL CAPS. For Syracuse @ PITTSBURGH (Sat.)
Richmond@ G. WASHINGTON (Sat.)
Against KENT STATE @ Akron (Sun.)
Duke@ FLORIDA STATE (Sun.)
Inside the Numbers Additional considerations for the NCAA Selection Committee include: "Good" wins
(vs. RPI 1-25) Kentucky, @Kentucky, Georgia Tech, Florida
(vs. RPI 26-50) NONE.
(vs. RPI 51-100) Arkansas, Mississippi, Clemson, Tennessee
(vs. RPI 101-150) NONE
(vs. RPI sub-150) Winthrop
Record vs. projected field (4-6)
Win: @Kentucky, Kentucky, Georgia Tech, Florida
Loss: @Gonzaga, @Pittsburgh, South Carolina, Alabama, @LSU, @Mississippi State
Record vs. at-large pool (1-1)
Reason(s) to INCLUDE Georgia
- 4 wins vs. RPI Top 25
- SOS No. 25
Reason(s) to EXCLUDE Georgia
- 2-7 road/neutral record
- NonConf SOS No. 179
Season breakdown (14-10, 6-7)
All RPI data through Monday, Feb. 26
Date Opponent Result Opp. RPI Opp. SOS 11/21 Western Carolina 78-67 218 170 11/25 Florida Atlantic 99-84 284 220 11/29 @Gonzaga 76-82 (L, ot) 7 68
12/2 Towson 81-51 282 199 12/5 Florida A&M 77-59 288 315 12/9 Winthrop 60-80 (L) 199 267 12/13 N-Clemson 61-56 64 2 12/18 South Alabama 65-63 207 92 12/22 Charleston Southern 79-59 316 245 12/30 @Pittsburgh 55-76 (L) 8 84
1/3 Georgia Tech 83-80 (ot) 15 21 1/7 @Tennessee 65-89 (L) 73 54 1/10 South Carolina 63-84 (L) 46 107 1/17 @Kentucky 65-57 3 11 1/21 Alabama 42-45 (L) 23 1 1/24 @Mississippi State 58-71 (L) 6 70 1/28 @LSU 59-63 (L) 25 39 1/31 Arkansas 71-50 79 27
2/4 Mississippi 64-51 75 30 2/7 @Auburn 54-57 (L) 56 26 2/11 @Vanderbilt 39-61 (L) 24 33 2/14 Kentucky 74-68 3 11 2/17 Florida 76-62 15 2 2/21 Tennessee 71-60 73 54 2/28 @South Carolina 46 107
3/3 @Florida 15 2 3/6 Vanderbilt 24 33 3/11 SEC TOURNAMENT
Joe Lunardi's forecast (Feb. 27)
Chance of NCAA top seed: 0 percent
Chance of NCAA "protected" (1-4) seed: 0 percent
Chance of NCAA bid: 45 percent
Chance of NCAA at-large bid: 40 percent
Chance of NIT bid: 50 percent
Chance of missing post-season: 5 percent
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