The Bracketology Report: Richmond

Updated: February 11, 2004, 2:04 PM ET
By By Tom Durso | Insider Bracketologist

Editor's note: Each week Bracketology Insider will take an in-depth look at teams headed for the NCAA Tournament ... or not.

Week in review
It was a tough week for on-the-bubble Richmond (Inside RPI No. 37, SOS No. 5), which dropped a heartbreaker on the road, pounded a cupcake and then lost another game on its usually reliable home court.

The heartbreaker was an overtime loss, 62-57, at Dayton (Inside RPI No. 36, SOS No. 156) last Wednesday. The Flyers are practically untouchable at UD Arena, but the Spiders hung tough, giving up a game-tying trey with nine seconds to go in regulation and then coming up short in the extra period. Richmond then traveled to Pittsburgh on Saturday and proceeded to blow out Duquesne (InsideRPI No. 158, SOS No. 144), 71-51.

Probably the most frustrating part of the Spiders' week was Tuesday's 62-51 loss to Xavier (InsideRPI No. 66, SOS No. 42) at the Robins Center, less than three weeks after impressively toppling the Musketeers in Cincinnati. A five minute-plus field goal drought late in the second half proved to be crippling for Richmond.

Coming up
Richmond will attempt to right its ship in the week ahead with a pair of games against subpar opponents. First up is Saturday's contest at home against a dreadful Fordham (InsideRPI No. 198, SOS No. 38) squad which recently suspended a team manager, allegedly for relaying an opposing team's plays to the bench via walkie-talkie.

Then it's on the road for the always-lovely, mid-winter trip to Olean, N.Y., to face St. Bonaventure (Inside RPI No. 171, SOS No. 48) next Wednesday. The Reilly Center is never a fun place to play, and the Bonnies have notched all six of their wins there.

"Bubble Trouble"
The Spiders are No. 69 this week on The Bracketology Report national seeding chart. That makes Richmond the last of the dreaded "last four out" of the projected NCAA field. The Spiders are looking to be the third Atlantic 10 team to dance in March.

That Richmond, at .500 in a non-power conference, is even on the bubble at all is a testament to the power of scheduling a tough non-league slate. The problem for the Spiders right now is that they haven't won enough of those games against glittering non-A-10 foes. And with just two RPI Top 100 opponents remaining in the regular season, Richmond appears to be faced with making a stand in the Atlantic 10 Tournament in Dayton.

Games of the Week
Richmond fans should root FOR and AGAINST the teams in ALL CAPS.
For KANSAS @ Nebraska (Sun.)
Texas Tech @ COLORADO (Feb. 18)
Against OREGON @ Washington (Thur.)
Tennessee @ ALABAMA (Sat.)


Inside the Numbers
Additional considerations for the NCAA Selection Committee include:
"Good" wins
(vs. RPI 1-25) @Kansas
(vs. RPI 26-50) N-Illinois, Virginia
(vs. RPI 51-100) VCU, @Colorado, @Temple, @Xavier, George Washington
"Bad" losses
(vs. RPI 101-200) @LaSalle
(vs. RPI sub-200) NONE
Record vs. projected field (3-8)
Win: Miss Valley St., VCU, @Kansas
Loss: N-South Carolina, @UAB, @Wake Forest, @Manhattan, Providence, Saint Joseph's, Dayton, @Dayton
Record vs. at-large pool (1-0)
Win: @Colorado
Loss: NONE
Reason(s) to INCLUDE Richmond
  • SOS No. 5
  • InsideRPI No. 37
  • Reason(s) to EXCLUDE Richmond
  • 7-6 road/neutral record
  • 6-0 vs. RPI Top 100
  • Season breakdown (13-10, 5-5)
    All RPI data through Monday, Feb. 9

    Date      Opponent                Result      Opp. RPI      Opp. SOS
    11/17     Miss Valley St.         62-46         183           316
    11/18     New Hampshire           63-49         284           250
    11/24     N-San Francisco         66-59         113           100
    11/25     N-South Carolina        61-67 (L)     42            170
    11/29     @UAB                    75-83 (L)     29            11

    12/3 VCU 70-52 82 164 12/6 @Wake Forest 66-81 (L) 26 60 12/13 @South Florida 70-58 185 111 12/20 @Manhattan 62-70 (L) 53 158 12/23 Providence 56-57 (L) 12 38 12/29 Hampton 73-42 276 286 12/31 @Colorado 75-62 60 82

    1/3 Duquesne 69-66 158 144 1/6 Saint Joseph's 60-71 (L) 2 31 1/10 @La Salle 55-66 (L) 156 71 1/14 Dayton 50-55 (L) 36 156 1/17 @Temple 59-52 92 40 1/22 @Kansas 69-68 10 12 1/25 @Xavier 53-44 66 42 1/31 George Washington 72-65 69 78

    2/4 @Dayton 57-62 (L, ot) 36 156 2/7 @Duquesne 71-51 158 144 2/10 Xavier 51-62 (L) 66 42 2/14 Fordham 198 38 2/18 @St. Bonaventure 171 48 2/21 La Salle 156 71 2/25 @Rhode Island 91 134 2/28 @George Washington 69 78

    3/6 Massachusetts 128 62 3/10 Atlantic 10 Tournament


    Joe Lunardi's forecast (Feb. 11)
    Chance of NCAA top seed: 0 percent
    Chance of NCAA "protected" (1-4) seed: 0 percent
    Chance of NCAA bid: 30 percent
    Chance of NCAA at-large bid: 20 percent
    Chance of NIT bid: 60 percent
    Chance of missing post-season: 10 percent

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