The Bracketology Report: North Carolina

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Editor's note: Each week Bracketology Insider will take an in-depth look at teams headed for the NCAA Tournament ... or not.

Week in review
North Carolina (RPI No. 17, SOS No. 52) welcomed neighboring North Carolina State (RPI No. 25, SOS No. 13) to Chapel Hill last Wednesday and just barely got a win on their home floor. Initially slowed by the Wolfpack's patient halfcourt game, UNC clamped down defensively in the second half, forcing 13 turnovers and taking control of the game. N.C. State mounted a late comeback but ran out of clock, giving North Carolina its first win in the intra-state rivalry in nearly three years.

On Saturday, North Carolina hit the road for its final game before Thursday's bloodsport against Duke (RPI No. 1, SOS No. 12). No doubt Roy Williams peeled the paint off his locker room's walls with loud warnings about looking ahead, but it was to no avail. Scuffling Clemson (RPI No. 52, SOS No. 3) entered the contest as the ACC's worst shooting team from behind the arc, then proceeded to knock down 11 of 13 treys on its way to an 81-72 upset.

Coming up
Three Carolina losses in six games must have dulled the luster on the matchup with Duke, right? Nah&we didn't think so, either. As with any great rivalry -- and they don't get better than this one -- records mean very little. The Tar Heels will be looking to pin the top-ranked Blue Devils with their first ACC loss, and will have the advantage of playing at home.

Williams must try mightily to keep his team on an even keel, for following Thursday's contest are a pair of potentially brutal road games. UNC gets all of one day off before busing to Wake Forest (RPI No. 22, SOS No. 32) on Saturday for a rematch of the Dec. 20 triple-overtime classic. Williams' first ACC game proved to be a classic, one that the Heels lost, 119-114. After Wake, North Carolina must head Tuesday to Georgia Tech (RPI No. 12, SOS No. 26), which will be looking to avenge a 15-point loss in Chapel Hill on Jan. 11.

It shapes up as a grueling stretch for Carolina. Without at least two wins against three of the country's top teams, the Tar Heels could be in danger of dropping into the second division of the ACC.

"Planting seeds"
The Tar Heels are No. 19 this week on The Bracketology Report national seeding chart. That makes North Carolina a No. 5 seed, as well as the fourth Atlantic Coast Conference team in the projected NCAA field.

To discover how a team of UNC's profile can manage to land only a No. 5 seed, check out the color of its jersey. In the home whites, the Tar Heels are a sparkling 9-1; in the road powder blues -- sorry, Carolina blues -- they are a dreadful 1-4, including zero ACC wins away from Chapel Hill. A 3-0 neutral court record is at least partially redeeming, but North Carolina simply must win some of its remaining road games to move back up the bracket.

And that's not going to be easy. Eight of UNC's nine remaining games are against teams in the RPI Top 50.

Season breakdown (13-5, 3-4)
All RPI data through Monday, Feb. 3

Date      Opponent          Result        Opp. RPI      Opp. SOS
11/22     Old Dominion      90-64           101           126
11/24     N-Davidson        91-68           160           64
11/29     @Cleveland St     82-76           290           120
12/2      N-Illinois        88-81           40            73
12/7      George Mason      115-81          110           226
12/14     Akron             64-53           141           163
12/20     Wake Forest       114-119(L, 3ot) 22            32
12/28     N-UNC Wilmington  71-54           135           144
12/30     Coastal Carolina  105-72          233           252
1/3       @Kentucky         56-61 (L)       3             7
1/7       Miami             89-64           147           254
1/11      Georgia Tech      103-88          12            26
1/14      @Maryland         84-90 (L)       36            19
1/17      Connecticut       86-83           5             16
1/22      @Florida St       81-90 (L, ot)   41            58
1/24      Virginia          96-77           50            59
1/28      North Carolina St 68-66           25            13
1/31      @Clemson          72-81 (L)       52            3
2/5       Duke                              1             12
2/7       @Wake Forest                      22            32
2/10      @Georgia Tech                     12            26
2/15      Maryland                          36            19
2/21      Florida St                        41            58
2/24      @Virginia                         50            59
2/29      @North Carolina St                25            13
3/2       Clemson                           52            3
3/6       @Duke                             1             12
3/11      ACC Tournament


	

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