The Bracketology Report: Florida State

Updated: January 13, 2004, 12:21 PM ET
By Charlie Creme | Insider Bracketologist

Editor's note: Each week Bracketology Insider will take an in-depth look at teams headed for the NCAA Tournament ... or not.

Week in review
The excitement of an ACC season-opening win over Maryland (No. 38 RPI, No. 42 SOS) has not carried over into the New Year for Florida State (No. 50 RPI, No. 111 SOS to start the week). First came a loss at in-state rival Florida (No. 6 RPI, No. 5 SOS), just two days after the Seminoles football team lost to in-state rival Miami in the Orange Bowl. Then came Sunday's disappointing 58-53 home-court loss to North Carolina State (No. 32 RPI, No. 58 SOS).

Florida State was trying for only its second-ever 2-0 conference start, rallying for a 53-52 lead with 1:34 left on Al Thorton's 3-pointer. Ultimately, those would be the Seminoles' final points. N.C. State's Levi Watkins hit a 3 of his own 30 seconds later, and the Wolfpack finished off its 10th straight win over FSU at the free throw line.

Coming up
Even for mid-January, Florida State faces an important road trip this week, beginning Tuesday night at Clemson (No. 56 RPI, No. 17 SOS). The Seminoles were winless away from home in the ACC a year ago, including a 14-point loss at Littlejohn Coliseum. In fact, the Seminoles haven't won an ACC road game since a March 3, 2001, victory at Clemson. The Tigers have been beaten handily in their first two ACC contests, but that was against Duke and Wake Forest, two clubs in the RPI Top 15.

FSU continues the move north on Sunday when it visits Virginia (No. 36 RPI, No 50 SOS). Tim Pickett scored 21 points in last season's 85-72 loss at UVa, but the Seminoles were never closer than 10 in the second half. Florida State returned the favor a month later, beating Virginia 73-59 in Tallahassee behind 32 points from Pickett, the Seminoles' leading scorer this season.

"Bubble trouble"
The Seminoles are No. 69 this week on The Bracketology Report national seeding chart. This puts Florida State four spots away from the projected NCAA field and among the dreaded "Last Four Out" this week.

At this point, the win over Maryland is the only significant line on the FSU résumé. No NCAA at-large bid comes to Tallahassee until the Seminoles reverse their recent road fortunes in the ACC.

Games of the Week
Florida State fans should root FOR and AGAINST the teams in ALL CAPS.
For Rutgers @ PITTSBURGH (Sat.)
MISSISSIPPI @ Arkansas (Sat.)
Against SOUTH CAROLINA @ Auburn (Wed.)
RHODE ISLAND @ St. Bonaventure (Sat.)


Inside the Numbers
Additional considerations for the NCAA Selection Committee include:
"Good" wins
(vs. RPI 1-25) NONE
(vs. RPI 26-50) Maryland
(vs. RPI 51-100) NONE
"Bad" losses
(vs. RPI 101-200) NONE
(vs. RPI sub-200) NONE
Record vs. projected field (1-2)
Win: Maryland
Loss: @Pittsburgh, N.C. State
Record vs. at-large pool (n/a)
Win: does not yet apply
Loss: does not yet apply
Reason(s) to INCLUDE Florida State
  • 11-3 vs. D-I opponents
  • 3-2 road/neutral record
  • Reason(s) to EXCLUDE Florida State
  • No. 111 SOS
  • one win vs. RPI Top 100
  • Season breakdown (12-3, 1-1)
    All RPI data through Monday, Jan. 12

    Date     Opponent              Result    Opp.RPI   Opp.SOS
    11/21    Maine                 69-49       252       317
    11/24    Georgetown-Ky. (NAIA) 81-67       N/A       N/A
    11/26    Nicholls State        99-54       307       245
    11/28    So. Carolina St.      81-46       258       270

    12/1 Northwestern 71-53 161 149 12/3 Mississippi 66-60 101 135 12/6 Fairleigh Dickinson 83-46 168 185 12/14 @ Miami, Fla. 67-58 151 246 12/18 N-Wagner 83-62 273 201 12/20 N-Chicago St. 47-42 261 137 12/22 @ Pittsburgh 56-63 (L) 24 151 12/28 Maryland 79-75 38 42 12/30 @ Stetson 87-72 215 30

    1/3 @ Florida 73-87 (L) 6 5 1/11 N.C. State 53-58 (L) 32 58 1/13 @ Clemson 56 17 1/18 @ Virginia 36 50 1/22 North Carolina 4 3 1/25 Wake Forest 12 107 1/29 Duke 9 34

    2/1 Savannah State 286 153 2/3 Georgia Tech 22 40 2/8 @ Maryland 38 42 2/10 @ N.C. State 32 58 2/14 Clemson 56 17 2/17 Virginia 36 50 2/21 @ North Carolina 4 3 2/25 @ Wake Forest 12 107 2/29 Duke 9 34

    3/6 @ Georgia Tech 22 40 3/11 ACC TOURNAMENT


    Joe Lunardi's forecast (Jan. 12)
    Chance of NCAA top seed: 0 percent
    Chance of NCAA "protected" (1-4) seed: 5 percent
    Chance of NCAA bid: 40 percent
    Chance of NCAA at-large bid: 35 percent
    Chance of NIT bid: 55 percent
    Chance of missing post-season: 5 percent

    Charlie Creme | email

    Women's College Basketball
    Charlie Creme projects the women's NCAA Tournament bracket for ESPN.com.

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