The Bracketology Report: Virginia

Originally Published: January 6, 2004
By Charlie Creme | Insider Bracketologist

Editor's note: Each week Bracketology Insider will take an in-depth look at teams headed for the NCAA Tournament ... or not.

Week in review
After a disappointing ACC season opener at North Carolina State (No. 54 RPI, No. 136 SOS) last Sunday, Virginia (No. 31 RPI, No. 64 SOS to start the week) bounced back to close out 2003 with an 85-74 victory over Iowa State (No. 64 RPI, No. 47 SOS) in Charlottesville on New Year's Eve.

Virginia trailed for much of the game against the previously unbeaten Cyclones but used a 19-5 run down the stretch to win, overcoming both a 40-23 rebounding deficit and 55 percent Cyclones shooting. Devin Smith scored 25 points, including the 3-pointer that put the Cavs up for good.

Four days later against Providence (No. 2 RPI, No. 21 SOS), the formula was similar -- Virginia forced a bunch number of turnovers (25) and allowed a high shooting percentage (.558) -- but the outcome was different. The Friars, thanks to one big run in each half, won 84-69 at University Hall. Elton Brown had 16 points to lead Virginia, which struggled throughout against the Providence zone, hitting just 6-of-23 from 3-point range.

Coming up
After Monday's 84-71 "recovery" win over William & Mary (No. 239 RPI, No. 254 SOS), in which Smith and Brown each scored 22 points, it is nothing but ACC opposition for the Cavaliers the rest of the season.

Virginia gets a golden opportunity to make people notice on Sunday when Duke (No. 16 RPI, No. 108 SOS) visits University Hall. The Blue Devils are arguably playing the best basketball in the country right now and were winners of seven straight entering the week.

Duke beat Virginia in all three meetings last season, including a 19-point victory in Charlottesville.

"Bubble Trouble" (already!)
The Cavaliers are No. 66 this week on The Bracketology Report national seeding chart. This puts U.Va. one spot away from the projected NCAA field and among the dreaded "Last Four Out" this week.

Wins over Minnesota and Iowa State have been nice, but Virginia didn't really do anything in the non-conference season to hang its hat on. The Cavs will have to make a better impression in ACC play.

Games of the Week
Virginia fans should root FOR and AGAINST the teams in ALL CAPS.
For VIRGINIA TECH @ Pittsburgh (Tues.)
PROVIDENCE @ Rutgers (Sat.)
Against Temple @ DAYTON (Sat.)
Indiana @ MICHIGAN (Sun.)


Inside the Numbers
Additional considerations for the NCAA Selection Committee include:
"Good" wins
(vs. RPI 1-25) NONE
(vs. RPI 26-50) NONE
(vs. RPI 51-100) Minnesota, Iowa State
"Bad" losses
(vs. RPI 101-150) NONE
(vs. RPI sub-150) NONE
Record vs. projected field (0-1)
Win: NONE
Loss: Providence
Record vs. at-large pool (n/a)
Win: does not yet apply
Loss: does not yet apply
Reason(s) to INCLUDE Virginia
  • No. 31 RPI
  • 2-1 road/neutral record
  • Reason(s) to EXCLUDE Virginia
  • no RPI Top 50 wins
  • Season breakdown (9-2, 0-1)
    All RPI data through Monday, Jan. 5

    Date     Opponent         Result        Opp.RPI     Opp.SOS
    11/23    Mt. St. Mary's   80-71          295          224
    11/28    Virginia Tech    80-65          152          227
    11/30    High Point       79-64          186          288

    12/3 Minnesota 86-78 74 103 12/5 @VMI 78-56 321 240 12/16 James Madison 90-80 213 150 12/22 Coast. Carolina 89-74 183 125 12/28 @NC State 69-86 (L) 54 136 12/31 Iowa State 85-74 64 47

    1/3 Providence (L) 69-84 2 21 1/5 William & Mary 84-71 239 254 1/11 Duke 16 108 1/15 @Georgia Tech 18 99 1/18 Florida State 43 27 1/20 Clemson 48 128 1/24 @North Carolina 6 38 1/31 @Wake Forest 4 1

    2/4 Maryland 25 24 2/7 NC State 54 136 2/11 @Duke 16 108 2/14 Georgia Tech 18 99 2/17 @Florida State 43 27 2/21 @Clemson 48 128 2/24 North Carolina 6 38

    3/2 Wake Forest 4 1 3/7 @Maryland 24 24 3/11 ACC TOURNAMENT


    Joe Lunardi's forecast (Jan. 6)
    Chance of NCAA top seed: 0 percent
    Chance of NCAA "protected" (1-4) seed: 10 percent
    Chance of NCAA bid: 50 percent
    Chance of NCAA at-large bid: 45 percent
    Chance of NIT bid: 40 percent
    Chance of missing post-season: 10 percent

    Charlie Creme | email

    Women's College Basketball
    Charlie Creme projects the women's NCAA Tournament bracket for ESPN.com.

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