Analyzing the Week 1 NFL lines 

May, 18, 2011
05/18/11
2:14
PM ET

I know it's been three years since our economy cratered like The Donald's presidential hopes. I know you can ask some people and they will tell you things are getting better -- at least for bankers. And Ford. And people who invested in Facebook or Twitter or have the next great social media scheme loaded on their computers, ready for venture funding. Last night I was at a party and I swear someone said to me, "I am going to give you the opportunity to get in on the ground floor of the next big idea." I laughed. Then he laughed at how absurd his pick-up line sounded, as though it was 1999. Good times flow when drinks are free and there is money in the marketplace.

But for all the true believers out there, I know just as many people who are looking for safe investments. They want to hold onto their money, tuck it away in a long-term CD or bond. Or maybe they just want to stuff it in a coffee can and bury it in their garden or a safety deposit box.

Or maybe they are like Fezzik, and they want to tie their money up in Week 1 NFL lines.

Last month, before the NFL draft, sports books began posting their Week 1 lines and totals. First, as far as I can tell, was betonline.com. Not too long after was the Hilton. And waiting in line when the Hilton posted, offering limits of $5,000 per bet, was Fezzik. "I don't know of too many people who bet them," he says. "People are worried about the NBA playoffs right now."

He's right, at least according to the random sampling I did. I called Dr. Bob on Tuesday afternoon and he told me, "I hardly ever bet Week 1 lines. There is too much variability and it's hard to predict." (He did tell me, however, that he likes the Mavs in the series vs. Oklahoma City.)

Then I called Erin Rynning. He ignored the Week 1 lines, too. (But he had an opinion on the Mavs-Thunder series -- he liked the Thunder. So now I'm conflicted.) Since I was getting nowhere, I asked ER who actually bets those Week 1 games. His answer: Fezzik.


To read more about the value in betting the Week 1 NFL lines now, what bets Fezzik likes and how Kevin Kolb's next possible team changes bettors' perceptions of certain lines, you must be an ESPN Insider.

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