In CBB betting, don't overreact to win streaks 

February, 5, 2010
02/05/10
5:10
PM ET

This Week's College Basketball Winning Thought With Alan Boston: Don't Overreact.

I'm going to stay out of the way and let Boston do his thing:

"Chapter 1 of any book on gambling is don't overreact. I'm talking about power ratings and not changing them when a team gets on a roll. Look at South Florida lately. It beat Georgetown as a 13-point underdog. And yet, I didn't adjust either team's rating even half a point. Not changing is the most important thought you could have when you are trying to handicap.

Now, how could it be that I didn't tweak anything? South Florida has now won four games in a row, all as underdogs, and I haven't moved their number at all. Well, the line I have had for South Florida vs. the closing line has always indicated I think South Florida is better than the bookmakers do. When Pitt was minus-3 at South Florida, I thought Pittsburgh should be favored by one. Since South Florida won the game and played closer to my number, I didn't make a change. When it played Seton Hall the bookmakers had the Hall at minus-2 and I had it as only a point better. South Florida won by two in OT. I had it closer to the way the game played out. The game before that the Bulls were getting six points from Providence. I felt it should be six, too. With a minute to go South Florida was down by 11 and, after a furious comeback, won in overtime.


To read Chad's and Alan Boston's betting advice on South Florida against Notre Dame and Iowa against Ohio State, you msut be an ESPN Insider

Tags:

Insider

SPONSORED HEADLINES