Being a bookmaker ain't easy. "At this time of year," says Lucky's boss Jimmy Vaccaro, "everything kind of starts to look like a snow white screen, [with] all the numbers coming together."
The good news for Jimmy is that, no matter what kind of lines he posts on some games, wise guys are trending in certain directions. "TCU and Boise are easy because 85 percent of the time wise guys are going with them early, even on higher numbers," says Jimmy. "Could be because they like the number where it is. Could be because they know it will go even higher later in the week and this will be a good buy."
Another trend that's handy: blind handicapping. With the season 10 weeks old, bettors have teams they believe in and teams they don't; they see teams with a chance at bowl games and teams whose seasons are over. No matter the spread for games with those squads, they'll be playing their personal biases, not the number.
"Honestly, you won't get carted out betting the towel tossers," says Jimmy. "Not at this point in the season."
Luckily, you don't have to go blind. We've got some thoughts on this weekend's biggest moves below.
To see analysis of what point spread movements in games like Tennessee vs. Ole Miss, Michigan State vs. Purdue, Texas vs. Baylor and Arizona vs. California might mean, you must be an ESPN Insider.
- Editor in Chief of ESPN The Magazine
- Writes "Behind The Bets" blog on sports gambling
- Authored seven books, including "The Odds"
ABOUT THIS BLOG
Chad Millman
Chad Millman, Editor in Chief of ESPN The Magazine, joined The Mag as an associate editor in 1998. A year later he left to write "The Odds" -- about a trio of Vegas bookmakers and wiseguys -- and to find riches working for an Internet company. He made tens of dollars on "The Odds," the web biz tanked and he returned to The Mag. He also worked at Sports Illustrated and wrote some other books, including "Iceman" with Chuck Liddell, "Invincible" with Vince Papale, "Pickup Artists" with Lars Anderson, and "The Detonators." His most recent books are the national bestseller "The Ones Who Hit the Hardest," about the blood feud between the 70s Steelers and Cowboys, written with Shawn Coyne, and the New York Times bestseller "They Call Me Baba Booey", with Gary Dell'Abate.
Millman's daily blog explores the culture of sports gambling; on Mondays and Fridays in the fall, he investigates trends in point spreads related to professional football.
E-mail Chad: Chad.X.Millman@espn.com
Follow Chad on Twitter: @ChadMillman
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