You can't believe what you hear in horse racing. Case in point, Bob Baffert, trainer of Kentucky Derby favorite Lookin at Lucky. After his horse drew the No. 1 position for the Derby, Baffert said, "He can't catch a break. ... Can we change the name?"
See, it's terrible to run from the rail; a horse can get caught in all kinds of traffic on the inside. In fact, only ... wait a sec ... actually, since 1900, 12 horses have won the Kentucky Derby from the No. 1 post, the MOST of any position.
Then there's this line you'll be hearing a lot of in the hours leading up to the Derby on Saturday: It's virtually impossible for a horse to win the Triple Crown these days. Today's thoroughbreds just can't take three races, at three different lengths (especially the mile-and-a-half long Belmont). After all, we haven't had a Triple Crown winner in 32 years.
Turns out, this conventional wisdom is also pure baloney.
To read why the Triple Crown hasn't actually become more difficult to accomplish in modern horse racing, you must be an ESPN Insider.
ABOUT THIS BLOG
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Peter Keating
Keating's blog covers the world of statistics and analytics. He will examine concepts for evaluating athletes and teams across all sports, not just those commonly associated with sabermetrics. He'll introduce researchers who are developing sports analytical tools. And he will present and examine "Next Level" findings from ESPN -- data analysis that goes beyond official statistics to explain strategies and performance.
Keating is a senior writer at ESPN the Magazine, where he has covered investigative and financial stories since 1999. He coordinates The Mag's annual "Ultimate Standings" project, which ranks all pro franchises according to how much they give back to fans. His work on concussions in football has earned awards from the Deadline Club, the New York Press Club and the Center for the Study of Sport in Society.
As an athlete, Keating has always combined the speed of Lou Piniella with the glovework of Darryl Strawberry, two childhood favorites. He lives in Montclair, N.J., with his wife, Karen, and their daughters, Eleanor and Samantha.
E-mail Peter: pkeating.nj@verizon.net or follow him on Twitter: @PKStatsBlog.