The NFL draft is in one week, which means seven days from now, a whole new crop of young athletes is going to get ripped off.
You read that right. When the top overall pick -- whether it's Sam Bradford or Jimmy Clausen or whoever -- grasps hands with St. Louis Rams GM Billy Devaney and holds up a jersey, announcers and fans will buzz about his contract, which surely will be north of the $41.7 million and six years that Matthew Stafford got last year. And that's just how the league likes it: a lot of attention paid to -- and, make no mistake, quite a bit of resentment toward -- the best-paid rookies, and not much appreciation for the overall effect of the draft. Because while it promotes competitive balance only moderately well, "the draft does depress salaries," as economists David Berri and Rob Simmons wrote in the Journal of Productivity Analysis last year, citing half a dozen earlier research papers.
To read why the NFL draft actually robs prospects of their full value, and an argument for the hockey draft as the most reasonable of the major sports, you must be an ESPN Insider.
ABOUT THIS BLOG
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Peter Keating
Keating's blog covers the world of statistics and analytics. He will examine concepts for evaluating athletes and teams across all sports, not just those commonly associated with sabermetrics. He'll introduce researchers who are developing sports analytical tools. And he will present and examine "Next Level" findings from ESPN -- data analysis that goes beyond official statistics to explain strategies and performance.
Keating is a senior writer at ESPN the Magazine, where he has covered investigative and financial stories since 1999. He coordinates The Mag's annual "Ultimate Standings" project, which ranks all pro franchises according to how much they give back to fans. His work on concussions in football has earned awards from the Deadline Club, the New York Press Club and the Center for the Study of Sport in Society.
As an athlete, Keating has always combined the speed of Lou Piniella with the glovework of Darryl Strawberry, two childhood favorites. He lives in Montclair, N.J., with his wife, Karen, and their daughters, Eleanor and Samantha.
E-mail Peter: pkeating.nj@verizon.net or follow him on Twitter: @PKStatsBlog.