This is the time of year you'll see various prognosticators run millions of simulated seasons to come up with their baseball predictions. I'm generally not a big fan of ultra-extended simulations, because 1) you're not going to get all that much better results by running a million simulations than you will with a thousand or even a hundred, and 2) simulated results are only as good as their inputs, anyway. What good are the projections you came up with for the 2010 Mets if every one of the 1.2 million simulated seasons had Jose Reyes playing 160 games?
But as a year goes on, and a simulation's possible results telescope into a narrower range, it becomes a lot more useful. Right now, there are about 15 games left in the NHL season, few enough that it's reasonable and telling to forecast all the remaining results and see what we come up with. And I wanted to show you two sites doing just that.
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ABOUT THIS BLOG
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Peter Keating
Keating's blog covers the world of statistics and analytics. He will examine concepts for evaluating athletes and teams across all sports, not just those commonly associated with sabermetrics. He'll introduce researchers who are developing sports analytical tools. And he will present and examine "Next Level" findings from ESPN -- data analysis that goes beyond official statistics to explain strategies and performance.
Keating is a senior writer at ESPN the Magazine, where he has covered investigative and financial stories since 1999. He coordinates The Mag's annual "Ultimate Standings" project, which ranks all pro franchises according to how much they give back to fans. His work on concussions in football has earned awards from the Deadline Club, the New York Press Club and the Center for the Study of Sport in Society.
As an athlete, Keating has always combined the speed of Lou Piniella with the glovework of Darryl Strawberry, two childhood favorites. He lives in Montclair, N.J., with his wife, Karen, and their daughters, Eleanor and Samantha.
E-mail Peter: pkeating.nj@verizon.net or follow him on Twitter: @PKStatsBlog.