The Week 13 NFL Sweat Barometer 

December, 1, 2011
12/01/11
12:50
PM ET

When I was looking over the Week 13 NFL matchups, one game in particular stood out: the Oakland Raiders visiting the Miami Dolphins as three-point underdogs.

Why, you ask? Well, currently the Raiders are a surprise leader in the AFC West at 7-4. Carson Palmer has helped the team win three straight games (though the victory over the Chargers in San Diego looks less impressive with each passing week), all without star running back Darren McFadden.

The Dolphins, meanwhile, are suddenly a 3-8 team that no one wants to face. Tony Sparano has done a fantastic job turning around a lost season and his players are battling for him. After losing their first seven games, Miami has won three of four -- and very easily could've beaten the Dallas Cowboys on Thanksgiving as well.

Although these teams are combined 6-1 SU (and 7-0 ATS!) over the past four weeks, the public still isn't backing them. Last week, at home, the Raiders were bet by just 51 percent of the public as 4.5-point favorites, even though they were facing a Bears team starting the mighty Caleb Hanie at quarterback. The Dolphins, as seven-point dogs at Dallas, were bet by just 38 percent of the public, despite their streak of five consecutive covers.

And no team has risen more over the past five weeks in the NFL Sweat Barometer (data provided by Sal Selvaggio from MadduxSports.com) than the Dolphins.

When I wrote this column in Week 7, Miami was 30th in the Sweat Barometer, 0-6 SU/ATS and had an SB number of minus-5.75. The Dolphins currently are seventh, now 5-6 ATS and own an impressive SB number of 3.86.

So who has the edge in this matchup? Well, unfortunately they're very even teams that are both riding covering streaks. Football Outsiders, in fact, has the Raiders ranked 17th overall and the Dolphins ranked 18th.


To see a Vegas experts pick on the Raiders-Dolphins game, plus the full Week 13 Sweat Barometer, including which teams are the best and worst to bet on this season, subscribe to ESPN Insider.

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