As I watched Tim Tebow get sandlot on the Jets last night, I realized that not only was he winning games, but he was also 4-1 against the spread (which is something I am sure he appreciates every time he's on bended knee). Around the same time that I had this revelation, NFL Network showed a promo for the upcoming 49ers-Ravens game. That reminded me that the Niners have had a pretty decent season. And by decent, I mean they are undefeated against the spread at 8-0-1. That means that Alex Smith and Tim Tebow combined are 12-1-1 against the spread.
So then I started thinking, could there be any two guys less likely to be among the league's best ATS past the midway point of the season? Um, yeah. How about Andy Dalton going 7-2? Or Cam Newton being 5-3-1? Even Blaine Gabbert is on a nice roll, putting together a 3-0-1 his past four games (but see the analysis below for why that might not last).
Meanwhile, take a look at how some of the more established stars are doing:
I'm being selective here, obviously. Drew Brees is 6-4. Aaron Rodgers is 7-2. On the flip side, not every neophyte is money. Colt McCoy is 2-5-2. But selectivity is not a bad thing. In fact, understanding when to rely on the numbers and when to ignore them is an important part of a betting strategy.
To read the rest of what Chad Millman says about this week's NFL line moves, you must be an ESPN Insider.
- Editor in Chief of ESPN The Magazine
- Writes "Behind The Bets" blog on sports gambling
- Authored seven books, including "The Odds"
ABOUT THIS BLOG
Chad Millman
Chad Millman, Editor in Chief of ESPN The Magazine, joined The Mag as an associate editor in 1998. A year later he left to write "The Odds" -- about a trio of Vegas bookmakers and wiseguys -- and to find riches working for an Internet company. He made tens of dollars on "The Odds," the web biz tanked and he returned to The Mag. He also worked at Sports Illustrated and wrote some other books, including "Iceman" with Chuck Liddell, "Invincible" with Vince Papale, "Pickup Artists" with Lars Anderson, and "The Detonators." His most recent books are the national bestseller "The Ones Who Hit the Hardest," about the blood feud between the 70s Steelers and Cowboys, written with Shawn Coyne, and the New York Times bestseller "They Call Me Baba Booey", with Gary Dell'Abate.
Millman's daily blog explores the culture of sports gambling; on Mondays and Fridays in the fall, he investigates trends in point spreads related to professional football.
E-mail Chad: Chad.X.Millman@espn.com
Follow Chad on Twitter: @ChadMillman
Behind the Bets podcast: Subscribe