As I watched Tim Tebow get sandlot on the Jets last night, I realized that not only was he winning games, but he was also 4-1 against the spread (which is something I am sure he appreciates every time he's on bended knee). Around the same time that I had this revelation, NFL Network showed a promo for the upcoming 49ers-Ravens game. That reminded me that the Niners have had a pretty decent season. And by decent, I mean they are undefeated against the spread at 8-0-1. That means that Alex Smith and Tim Tebow combined are 12-1-1 against the spread.
So then I started thinking, could there be any two guys less likely to be among the league's best ATS past the midway point of the season? Um, yeah. How about Andy Dalton going 7-2? Or Cam Newton being 5-3-1? Even Blaine Gabbert is on a nice roll, putting together a 3-0-1 his past four games (but see the analysis below for why that might not last).
Meanwhile, take a look at how some of the more established stars are doing:
I'm being selective here, obviously. Drew Brees is 6-4. Aaron Rodgers is 7-2. On the flip side, not every neophyte is money. Colt McCoy is 2-5-2. But selectivity is not a bad thing. In fact, understanding when to rely on the numbers and when to ignore them is an important part of a betting strategy.
To read the rest of what Chad Millman says about this week's NFL line moves, you must be an ESPN Insider.