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Boston's Thursday Night Specials

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Updated: January 15, 2009, 12:02 PM ET

Western Carolina minus-1.5 over Samford

When I handicap a game, I have power ratings on each team. And the amount of those bets are often strictly based on that rating. If my rating is similar to the line the bookmakers posted, my bets are smaller. If my rating is off, the bets are bigger. In this game, my power rating has it exactly as the bookmakers do. But (and this is a key "but") I think the match-up is so favorable I have to bet one side bigger.

Samford's scheme is based on a Princeton-style offense and Princeton-style defense. That used to be highly unusal. It usually allows them to hang in games by controlling tempos against superior foes. However, Western Carolina coach Larry Hunter is brilliant, one of the unknown guys in the country, and I believe his team will be thoroughly prepared. So with the tricked-up offense and defense negated, Samford will be helpless. This Western Carolina team has already beaten Kent State and almost beat San Diego State. I don't think Samford has the resources to keep this game close. So I took Carolina minus-1.5 for a significant bet.  
 
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