Week 12 Eliminator best bets

Projecting the safest selections for Eliminator pools in Week 12 and beyond

Updated: November 19, 2013, 1:14 PM ET
By Nik Bonaddio and Keith Goldner | numberFire

JJ WattGeorge Bridges/MCT/Getty ImagesCan J.J. Watt and the Houston Texans beat the Jacksonville Jaguars this week?

Peyton Manning's dismissal of the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday night leaves us with no remaining undefeated teams in the NFL. And with only a few weeks remaining in the regular season, teams are now in the homestretch looking toward the playoffs.

One of those teams is the Detroit Lions, who suffered a brutal loss at the hands of Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday. Up 27-23, Jim Schwartz made a questionable decision to attempt a fake field goal. The ensuing fumble resulted in a 97-yard, go-ahead touchdown drive for the Steelers and they never looked back.

Detroit's passing attack ranks No. 6 in the NFL in terms of opponent-adjusted efficiency, adding a point above expectation for every six passing plays. Meanwhile, their rushing attack ranks 23rd. On defense the Lions rank No. 3 against the run, saving 0.11 points for every rushing play in comparison to a league-average opponent. The bad news is that they are 25th against the pass, making the overall unit rank just No. 23 after adjusting for strength of opposing offenses. So, what does that mean for their matchup in Week 12 against Tampa Bay?

Each week, we at numberFire.com will be here with our projective modeling to help you survive and advance in your Eliminator pool. Our job is to provide you with the best information possible to empower smarter decision-making.

Keep in mind: We are dealing in probability. The NFL is extremely volatile, oozing with random variation -- "Any Given Sunday" certainly holds true. Upsets will happen. We will be the first to tell you, we can't be right all the time. But we are here to help you try to navigate the madness.

To help you visualize, here's our Eliminator Pool threat matrix that shows you how each team projects each week based on our model. It will be updated each week as results come in over the course of the season.

Green: Our equity-maximizing pick of the week.

Red: Popular pick: This is the consensus pick by you, the player.

Brown: Max method. This finds the best matchup of the year and works backward to maximize total win percentage throughout the season.