Players with best scoring chances

Fred Jackson, Calvin Johnson and others with best TD opportunities

Updated: November 6, 2013, 11:04 AM ET
By Mike Clay | Pro Football Focus

Rob Gronkowski AP Photo/Kathy WillensRob Gronkowski is a favorite target of Tom Brady in the open field and near the end zone.

With nine weeks of the 2013 regular season in the books, it's time for our weekly look at our alternative to red zone data: opportunity-adjusted touchdowns (OTD).

If you're new to the stat, be sure to check out our introductions to rushing and receiving OTD. The OTD metric weighs every carry/target and converts the data into one number that indicates a player's scoring opportunity.

Week 9 belonged to the New England Patriots, with Stevan Ridley and Rob Gronkowski pacing the league in OTD.


After another busy week near the end zone, Fred Jackson (6.8) has taken control of the rushing OTD lead through nine weeks. Jackson handled a pair of carries from the Chiefs' 1-yard line in Week 9 and now leads the entire league with seven tries from 1 yard out. On the season, Jackson has carried the ball from inside the opponent's 5-yard line 13 times, with five carries resulting in a touchdown.

Mike Clay

Fantasy Football
• Director and managing editor at Pro Football Focus Fantasy
• Writes the weekly "Fantasy 32" column on ESPN Insider