Week 8 Eliminator best bets

Projecting the safest selections for Eliminator pools in Week 8 and beyond

Updated: October 22, 2013, 1:16 PM ET
By Nik Bonaddio and Keith Goldner | numberFire

BroncosAAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post via Getty ImagesDon't expect Peyton Manning and the Broncos to falter at home against the Redskins on Sunday.

The Kansas City Chiefs are the last undefeated team in the NFL. I'll repeat that: The team that went 2-14 in 2012, hailing from the City of Fountains, with the recently fired head coach (Andy Reid) and the recently dismissed quarterback (Alex Smith), is 7-0 and the only remaining undefeated team in 2013.

In Week 7, Tom Brady and the Patriots headed into New York expecting a win, but pushed away their chances with a bad penalty in overtime. In fact, that pushing penalty cost the Pats 56 percent in terms of win probability. The Washington Redskins won a shootout in Chicago after Jay Cutler went down with an injury, Dallas became the only team over .500 in the NFC East and the Cincinnati Bengals won on a last-second field goal once again.

Peyton Manning returned to Lucas Oil Stadium for the first time as a Bronco, to an extremely warm reception, but it was Andrew Luck and Jim Irsay who came out on top 39-33. So what does the next week hold?

Each week, we at numberFire.com will be here with our predictive modeling to help you survive and advance in your Eliminator pool. Our job is to provide you with the best information possible to empower smarter decision-making.

Keep in mind: we are dealing in probability. The NFL is extremely volatile, oozing with random variation -- "any given Sunday" certainly holds true. Upsets will happen. We will be the first to tell you, we can't be right all the time. But we are here to allow you to try to navigate the madness.

To help you visualize, here's our Eliminator Pool threat matrix that shows you how each team projects each week based on our model. It will be updated each week as results come in over the course of the season.

Green -- Our equity-maximizing pick of the week

Red -- Popular pick: This is the consensus pick by you, the player.

Brown -- Max method: This finds the best matchup of the year and works backward to maximize total win percentage throughout the season.


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