Players with best scoring chances

Arian Foster and Calvin Johnson likely to hit pay dirt in Week 4?

Updated: September 25, 2013, 2:07 PM ET
By Mike Clay | Pro Football Focus

Calvin JohnsonAP Photo/Duane BurlesonCalvin Johnson is being targeted in the end zone often, but he's had trouble converting.

Statheads love a good sample size.

With three weeks of the 2013 NFL season in the books, we're starting to get one. Wednesday, we'll be taking our weekly look at our alternative to red zone data: opportunity-adjusted touchdowns.

If you're new to the stat, be sure to check out our introduction to rushing and receiving oTD. The oTD metric weighs every carry/target and converts the data into one number that indicates a player's scoring opportunity.

Three weeks in, oTD tells us that DeMarco Murray and Wes Welker are doing their part to power fantasy owners to a playoff berth.

Mike Clay

Fantasy Football
• Director and managing editor at Pro Football Focus Fantasy
• Writes the weekly "Fantasy 32" column on ESPN Insider